Friday, May 3, 2013

Kentucky Oaks Today

My personal favorite for the Kentucky Oaks, Flashy Gray, is out of the race with a bruised heel on her right fore - so, who does that leave?  A whole card full of talent - seven of these ten fillies are Grade 1 winners; seven won their last race, and the other three finished in the money.  What do we have to choose from?  Normally, I'd be betting on Dreaming of Julia, who is running from gate 8; but she is the betting favorite.  She is a gorgeous bay, trained by Todd Pletcher, and will have John Velasquez on her back - and I love her pedigree.  Because she is the betting favorite, however, I'll be betting my money on other fillies.  Three of the ten fillies have never lost a race: Close Hatches, a granddaughter of Unbridled, Midnight Lucky, and Unlimited Budget.  Midnight Lucky has only raced twice, even though she won by a combined 7 lengths.  I'm afraid the Kentucky Oaks crowd will make her nervous.  Just for pure contrariness, and because I love a long-shot, I'll bet $10 to win on these three fillies: Princess of Sylmar (with Mike Smith in the irons), Pure Fun (with Julian Leparoux up), and Silsita (with Gary Stevens on board).  Honestly, I just like the looks of these fillies, along with their bloodlines...  Let's see what happens at Churchill Downs today.
  I will also spend this afternoon looking at race results of the colts running in tomorrow's Derby.  I would love it if the weather forecast for Louisville did not include rain - but that's not the case.  How many of these colts have run on a wet track?  Have any of them run on a "muddy" track?  If you are a "come from behind" horse, the difference between the sting of dry dirt and clay and the large clumps of sticky mud that might be there, is quite a difference.  A lot of young horses hate the mud; they feel like their feet are sliding, they don't like the clumps thrown into their faces, and a few just hate puddles...  The weather will make betting on the Derby a very interesting proposition tomorrow....
**** And, a note of sadness...  Miner's Mark, the 23-year-old son of Mr. Prospector and undefeated Personal Ensign, was put down on April 30.  No reason has been given. ****

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