Thursday, September 6, 2018

Fifty-two "Major Wins" Claims and Facts - Part One of Two

1.  Almost 4 million jobs created since election.
The number of jobs created by mid-August 2018 was 3.4 million.  By itself, the number sounds impressive - but a closer look at the pace of US job growth shows it has slowed since the President was elected in November 2016.  Job growth statistics in the US are measured from November through October.  Under President Obama in 2014 and 2015, 2.8 million jobs per year were added, with 2.5 million in 2016.  After the 2016 election, there was a 2.1 million job growth rate in 2017, and, so far, 1.3 million in 2018.

2.  More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
This is true - but we also have the highest recorded population in history, more than 326 million people. Just think, unemployment records have been kept in the US since 1948; the US has averaged at 5.77 percent unemployment since that time, with an all time high unemployment rating of 10.8 %, and a low of 2.5 % in May 1953.  We are currently at a 3.9% unemployment rate.

3.  We have created more than 400,000 manufacturing jobs since my election.
Since the election, manufacturing jobs have increased by 373,000.  However, the rate of increase in manufacturing jobs has been fairly stable since around 2010, regardless of who was sitting in the Oval Office.  Manufacturing jobs hit rock bottom in February 2010, but had increased by 916,000 by the time the 45th President was sworn in.

4.  Manufacturing jobs growing at the fastest rate in more than THREE DECADES.
This was true via employment reports in July.  From July 2017 through July 2018, US manufacturing added 327,000 jobs; the most of any 12-month period since April 1995, when 345,000 jobs were added.

5.  Economic growth last quarter hit 4.2 percent.
There was a 4.1 percent growth rate for gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2018.  This is a strong showing in the context of recent history, and the highest since the third quarter of 2014. Quarterly increases of at least 4 percent are not unheard of.  That level was reached four times under President Obama, with 4.6 percent twice,and 5.2 percent, as well as two 3.9 percent growths.

6.  New unemployment claims recently hit a 49-year low.
True.  On 1 March 2018, unemployment claims were at 202,000, the lowest since March of 1969; on 26 July 2018, unemployment claims were rising at were at 217,000.

7.  Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
True.  It has risen each year that it has been tracked, other than during the Great Depression.

8.  African-American unemployment has recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
True.  In May 2018, the African-American unemployment rate reached a record low at 5.9 percent; in June, however, it rose to 6.5 percent.  That is a still low number, historically.

9.  Hispanic-American unemployment is at the lowest rate ever recorded.
True.  The current 4.6 percent unemployment rate is an historic record.

10.  Asian-American unemployment recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
True.  However this specific statistic has only been calculated since 2003; the rate is usually low, hanging around 3 percent.  The President is probably referring to the 2.1 percent reported in May 2018, but in June 2018 the number was back at 3.2 percent.

11.  Women's unemployment recently reached the lowest rate in 65 years.
False.  The current reported level is 3.7 percent.  That is low by historical standards; but it was as low, or lower, for most of the time between August 1999 and April 2001.

12.  Youth unemployment has recently hit the lowest rate in nearly half a century.
True.  In July 2018, the US youth unemployment rate dropped to 8.6 percent, down from 8.9 in June.  From 1955 until 2018, the youth unemployment rate averaged at 12.2 percent; with a high of 19.5 percent in April 2010, and a record low of 7.8 percent in September 1956.

13.  Lowest unemployment rate ever recorded for Americans without a high school diploma.
True.  In May 2018, the unemployment rate for workers 25 or older with less than a high school diploma was 5.4 percent, down from 6.2 in May 2017.  For those without a high school diploma, unemployment rates touched a 25-year record low late last year, and has held below 6% in 2018, a sharp drop from 8.5 percent in September 2016.

14.  Under my Administration, veterans' unemployment recently reached its lowest rate in nearly 20 years.
True.  In July 2018, the unemployment rate for Veterans fell to 3 percent, down from 3.7 in 2017.  The high was in 2010, when the Veteran unemployment rate reached 8.7 percent.

15.  Almost 3.9 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps since the election.
"Lifted off?"  The use of food stamps, or SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program), has been waning for the past four years.  Actually, 3.6 million Americans have gone off  SNAP since the election in 2016, and 3.1 million since the inauguration.  Part of the reason for the decline in numbers is the current economic growth, and better local welfare and food pantry programs.  The number of people receiving SNAP benefits has previously fallen, between 1981 and 1988 and 1994 and 2000 (10.3 million fewer).  Analysts say an improving economy contributed to the decreases in those periods, also.

16.  The Pledge to America's Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans.  We are committed to VOCATIONAL education.
On 19 July 2018 in the East Room of the White House, the President held an event he called "The Pledge to America's Workers."  According to an Associated Press report, the White House said the program "would provide at least 3.8 million new career opportunities for students and workers over the next five years, including apprenticeships, work-based learning, and continuing education.
  Some of the companies signing the pledge include Apple, Boeing, General Motors, FedEx, The Home Depot, IBM, Lockheed Martin, Microsoft, Northrop Grumman and Walmart.  Several trade associations also committed to the job training initiative."
  When Ivanka Trump, who was present at the event, was asked about having the Trump Organization to sign the Pledge to "hire Americans," she said she would not do so.  This is not surprising given the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida asked for permission to hire 78 foreign workers recently.  While on the campaign trail, the current President promised to "hire American" and that hiring immigrants drove wages down for Americans.  The Trump Organization would not return calls regarding the Pledge.

17.  95 percent of  U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future  -  highest ever.
True.  On 3 July 2018, the US House of Representatives Committee on Ways and Means released the late June results of a survey taken by the National Association of Manufacturers, showing that their optimism has skyrocketed.  Ninety-five percent said they are optimistic about the future, which is the highest response ever recorded by the survey.

18.  Retail sales surged last month, up another 6% over last year.
Sort of...   In  May 2018, retail trade sales rose 0.8%  from April, and made the yearly raise of 6 % from May of 2017, according to the US Commerce Department's census bureau. 

19.  Signed the biggest package of tax cuts and reforms in history.  After tax cuts, over $300 billion poured back in to the US in the first quarter alone.
False.  45's tax cut was exceeded by the 1981 tax cut in inflation-adjusted dollars; and as a percentage of the GDP, a half-dozen or more previous tax cuts were larger.  -   And the second sentence is partly true, but mostly false.  The Department of Commerce reported data that showed US corporations' overseas operations returned more than $300 billion in retained profits to their US parents in the first quarter alone.  And those multinational companies had reduced their overseas investments by more than $400 billion in that quarter, also.  Unfortunately, the Commerce Department figures reflect a legal change in accounting methods, not a change in corporate behavior. 
  Now that these corporations have been forced by the tax law to pay the tax on their retained profits, they are free to do anything they'd like with them. And in a blow to the President's plans, they are not increasing their capital investments in their US operations very much.  Mostly they are going to continue to buy back shares or buy up other companies.  A few companies have announced some minor increases in US-based investments.  Corporations may have brought back $351 billion in cash, but they've announced $503 billion in share buy-backs since the tax law was passed.

20.  As a result of our tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
True.  The top marginal tax rate has been lowered to 25%, the lowest top rate since 1931.  Most small businesses, however, currently pay an effective rate of less than 25 percent.  Most small businesses in the US are organized as "pass-through" companies - sole proprietorships, partnerships, and S corporations - that don't get taxed as the 35% corporate tax rate.  According to a 2009 report from the Small Business Administration, the marginal tax rate for a small business is 19.8 percent.

21.  Helped win US bid for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.
True.  On 31 July 2017, Politico wrote:  "The International Olympic Committee also cited the role President Donald Trump played in the city's pursuit.  'Since his election, President Trump has been personally involved in helping to make L.A.'s bid a truly American bid and the White House Office of American Innovation and the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives have been true partners throughout,' the statement said. 'The USOC and Los Angeles bid team greatly appreciate their strong commitment to bringing the Olympic and Paralympic Games back to the United States.'"

22.  Helped win US-Mexico-Canada's united bid for 2026 World Cup.
True.  The President wrote three letters to the FIFA World Cup selection committee, and, thanks to his guarantees, North America will host the 2026 World Cup, even though he will not be President at that time.  The President promised that some of his most restrictive immigration policies would be relaxed for players and fans attending the games.  In a 2 May 2018 letter, he wrote " ... all eligible athletes, officials, and fans from all countries around the world would be able to enter the United States with discrimination."  In another letter, written in March, he guaranteed the US would respect FIFA rules that required the playing of any country's national anthem, the display of its flag, and respect for human rights.

23.  Opened ANWR & Approved Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines.
True, true, and true.  First, opening ANWR - the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge - for oil and gas drilling.  In April 2018, the US Department of the Interior launched the process of holding lease sales for oil and gas drilling in the 1.6 million acre coastal plain of ANWR.  Despite decades of resistance from conservation groups and regular citizens, the Republicans were able to quietly include opening the Refuge to oil and gas drilling by tagging it onto the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. A notice published in the Federal Register stated the 60-day public scoping period to assist in the preparation of an environmental impact statement for the leasing program.
  The sale targets the 1002 area on Prudhoe Bay in Northern Alaska, which has an estimated 12 billion barrels of recoverable crude.  The same area is described by the Sierra Club as "the biological heart" of the Arctic Refuge - home to polar bears, caribou, migratory birds and other species - as well as vital lands and wildlife for the subsistence way of life of the Gwich'in Nation.
  "I never appreciated ANWR so much," the President said during a speech at a Republican retreat in West Virginia. "A friend of mine called up who is in that world and in that business. He said, 'Is it true that you're thinking about ANWR?'  I said, 'Yeah, I think we're going to get it but you know...'  He said, 'Are you kidding?  That's the biggest thing by itself.  Ronald Regan and every president has wanted to get ANWR approved.'  And after that I said, 'Oh, make sure that is in the bill.  It was amazing how that had an impact."
  Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines  -  The Keystone XL Pipeline is a 36-inch, 1,179 mile lone pipeline proposed to carry crude oil from the crude oil sands in Hardisty, Alberta, Canada to Steele City, Nebraska, which will then connect with another pipeline to carry the oil down to Texas refineries.  The project was proposed in 2008, and approved by the President in early 2017.  But Keystone XL has been bogged down in legal suits.  Friends of the Earth, Natural Resources Defense Council, and the Sierra Club, among others initiated a lawsuit in March 2017, claiming the President's approval was unlawful.  After winning the case in the US District Court for the District of Montana, TransCanada Corporation has been seeking approval from the Nebraska Public Service Commission for the final step in the permitting process for Keystone XL. Permitting was approved by a 3 to 2 vote.  Now TransCanada will assess the decision and it's impacts on construction cost and schedule before commenting further.  Environmental and tribal representatives opposed to the pipeline have vowed to continue their fight against the installation.  In November 2017,  the Keystone pipeline ( a"sister" to Keystone XL) leaked 9,700 barrels of crude oil (or 407,400 gallons) into the land of Marshall County, South Dakota.         ~~~~
  The Dakota Access Pipeline (or Bakken pipeline) is a 30-inch diameter pipeline that runs 1,172 miles underground from the Bakken shale oil fields in northwest North Dakota, through South Dakota and Iowa, to an oil tank farm near Patoka, Illinois.  There it joins the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline and travels to Nederland, Texas, and it's known as the Bakken system.
  The $3.78 billion project was announced to the public in June 2014, and informational hearings for landowners took place between August 2014 and January 2015.  Construction of the pipeline began in June 2016.  It was stopped by President Obama, but the next President signed an executive order to "jump start" the pipeline on 24 January 2017. It was completed April 2017, with first oil delivered on 14 May.  It became commercially operational on 1 June 2017.
  The pipeline has been controversial regarding its impact on the environment.  A number of Native Americans in Iowa and the Dakotas have opposed the pipeline, including the Meskwaki and several  Sioux tribal nations, under the assertion that the pipeline would threaten sacred burial grounds as well as the quality of water in the area.  A protest at the site in North Dakota, near the Standing Rock Indian Reservation, drew international attention.  (And several of my friends were arrested there.)
  In 9 months, from 3 March 2017 through 14 November 2017, there were 8 known leaks from the Dakota Access Pipeline.  The leaks began even before the construction was "complete."   On March 3 and 5, there  were two oil leaks in North Dakota.  On 4 April there was a leak in South Dakota.  On 23 April there was a leak in Illinois.  On June 12 there was a leak in Louisiana.  On 19 June there was a 4,998 gallon leak in Tennessee.  And there was a leak in Iowa on 14 November.

24.  Record number of regulations eliminated.
 It's a toss-up - both yes and no.  In the previous two administrations, covering 16 years, the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs saw George W. Bush implement 2,500  final regulations, while Barack Obama finalized 2,100 regulations.  Since his inauguration, the current President has repealed less than 100 regulations, or about 2% of those passed by G W Bush and Obama.  Only Ronald Reagan entered the White House with an avowal to remove regulations as 45 has.  However, since the beginning of our government in 1776, changes in making and braking regulations have changed quite a bit.  So one cannot definitely say true or false.   -  Simply put: There's a long, legal process for undoing a regulation these days, let alone issuing a new one.  The current President has mostly halted regulations, dashed those that were left unfinished by Obama, and has reversed executive orders.

25.  Enacted regulatory relief for community banks and credit unions.
True.  On 24 May 2018, the President signed into law the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act ( also known as the 2018 Financial Reform Act).  This Act rolls back certain provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act  of 2010, providing relief to all but the largest banking organizations in the United States.

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