My Kentucky Derby Picks

After yesterday afternoon's draw, I blogged the post positions, names of horses, names of jockeys, and the morning line betting odds for the Kentucky Derby.  Besides the top twenty colts in the starting gate, there are two others prepared to step into the gate in case of other entrants having to scratch out of the race.  The race is one and one-quarter miles, and all colts will carry 126 pounds.  As usual, I'll give the odd-ball views of the race, and then pedigrees and my choices...
  Of the twenty colts starting, one is a gelding (War Story); two are ridglings, meaning only one testicle has descended - Upstart and Far Right; and the rest are whole males.  Of the twenty colts, two are greys or roans - El Kabeir and Frosted; six are chestnuts - Carpe Diem, Dortmund, International Star, War Story, Mr. Z, and Far Right; the other colts are bays and dark browns.  Three of the runners are sons of past Kentucky Derby winners: Ocho Ocho Ocho is the son of Street Sense; Dortmund is the son of Big Brown; and International Star is the son of Fusaichi Pegasus.  Spendthrift Farm sires comprise seven entries: Notional is the sire of Far Right; Malibu Moon has three sons entered - Mr. Z, Stanford, and Danzig Moon; Line of David is the sire of Firing Line; Temple City fathered Bolo; and Warrior's Reward is the sire of Tencendur.  All of the colts are related to my favorite three sires.  The colts were all bred in Kentucky, with a few exceptions: Tencendur, Upstart, and International Star were New York bred; El Kabeir was bred in Florida; Danzig Moon is a registered Ontario, Canada bred; and Mubtaahij is the Irish-bred colt with the Arab owner with the South African trainer and with the jockey from Belgium.  If I were going on good looks alone, I'd pick American Pharoah, Itsaknockout, Frosted, Stanford, Firing Line and Danzig Moon.  Trainer D Wayne Lukas says that Mr. Z has a natural affinity with the Churchill Downs track.
  Mubtaahij is the only horse in the field that has raced one and a quarter miles before, and he won his races.  He has also defeated older horses.  But he's now racing in a different country, and without his usual feed (which isn't approved in the United States), on a different track.  Will he be able to continue his winning ways?  American Pharoah hasn't raced at CD before, but he has won, convincingly, on both a muddy and a fast track.  The morning odds have only three colts listed at less than 12 to 1 odds:  American Pharoah, Dortmund, and Carpe Diem.
  As I stated yesterday, there are a multitude of items to consider in handicapping and betting on a race - the horses past race history, the pedigree of the horse, the jockey, the post position, riding and racing strategy, the "feel" of the course to the horse, how the horse itself feels, how the horse reacts to the crowd and the hoopla surrounding a Triple Crown race, etc., etc, etc....      If I were just choosing my bets based on pedigree, my first pick would be Mubtaahij, followed by Ocho Ocho Ocho, Dortmund, International Star, Frosted and Itsaknockout.  Without seeing the colts before the race, just based on my research (and my own feelings) I think that Firing Line will give Gary Stevens a winning ride.  I believe that Dortmund, American Pharoah, and Carpe Diem will be burnt out with an eighth of a mile left.  I think Frosted will be in second place, with El Kabeir and Keen Ice battling for third.   -   Of course, my picks might change after seeing the colts on race day.
   Television coverage:  NBC Sports Network will televise 3 hours of racing on Friday, 1 May, including the Kentucky Oaks from 3 o'clock to 6 o'clock (EDT).
   Derby Day coverage, on May 2, will begin at 12 noon (EDT) on the NBC Sports Network and run until 4 o'clock (EDT), at which time coverage will switch to local NBC channels from 4 until 7 (EDT), with a wrap-up of events on NBC Sports Network from 7 through 7:30 (EDT).
**** Here's hoping for injury free races on both days!  And good luck, if you are betting! ****