Rain For the Oaks and Derby?

For the past few days, the weather forecasts for both the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday have remained the same.  There's a 40% chance of rain Friday afternoon and evening for the Oaks, and a 60% chance of rain for the Derby.
   The early betting favorite for the Kentucky Oaks is Bellafina, a huge daughter of Quality Road, out of the Malibu Moon mare, Akron Moon.  Bellafina has raced 8 times, winning six, and finishing second in her first start.  The only other time was when she "didn't fire" in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Filly race at Churchill Downs, where she finished fourth. And Bellafina has three Grade 1 wins under her belt, too.  She is trained by Simon Callaghan, and will have her regular jockey, Flavian Plat, in the irons for Friday's race.  Since there is a full field, the winner's share of the $1.25 million purse is $705,520 (not the $750,000 I had earlier reported).

Bellafina winning the Santa Anita Oaks

The betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby is Omaha Beach, a dark bay son of War Front, out of the Seeking the Gold mare, Charming. Because of his pedigree, he ran his first three races on turf courses, getting two seconds and a third place.  Richard Mandella, his trainer, noticed the colt seemed to run better on the main dirt track during his morning workouts, and decided to try racing him on the dirt. Omaha Beach finished second in his first dirt race; he won his second race by 9 lengths.  Then he shipped to Arkansas and won his division of the Rebel Stakes, and then won the Arkansas Derby in rain on a sloppy track.  Jockey Mike Smith had to choose between riding Roadster and Omaha Beach in the Kentucky Derby.  Mike chose Omaha Beach - so, even though he's the betting favorite, that's who I'll be betting on....

Omaha Beach winning the Arkansas Derby under Mike Smith