I wish I was in Virginia today - more specifically, I wish I was on the Eastern Shore, on Chincoteague Island. Today is the 47th annual Seafood Festival - you buy a ticket, and you eat all you can of any offered seafood - oysters, clams, crabs, shrimp, scallops, mussels, and fish - served fresh, raw, or cooked in an infinite number of ways.... The Chincoteague Seafood Festival is four hours of heaven on earth, from noon until 4 p.m. I hope you can enjoy this delectable delight at some point in time!
My betting choices stunk yesterday for the Kentucky Oaks, so I don't think you should trust my judgement on today's Derby. Today's post time is at 6:24 p.m. (EDT), and, with the scratch of El Kabeir yesterday, and the unexpected scratch of International Star this morning, there will be eighteen colts running for the Roses in the 141st annual Kentucky Derby. With the scratch of El Kabeir, Calvin Borel is without a Derby mount for the first time in years. Kerwin "Booboo" Clark, who won the Oaks aboard Lovely Maria, has never had a mount in the Derby... Maybe next year Booboo will have a chance. What is interesting about the scratch of International Star, owned by the Ramsey family, is that three of their other horses were scratched from running today....
Most handicappers agree that this will end up being a two-horse race between betting favorite American Pharoah, ridden by Victor Espinoza, and trained by Bob Baffert, and Dortmund, ridden by Martin Garcia, and also trained by Bob Baffert. Everything depends upon racing luck, and, in reality, this race is wide open... And I don't know how the scratch of International Star will affect the starting gate positions - will they be shifted one over, again? Or will they run with the twelve gate empty? Three Hall of Fame trainers have entries: D Wayne Lukas has Mr. Z, Nick Zito has Fragment, and Bob Baffert has the two favorites, American Pharaoh and Dortmund. Todd Pletcher has four colts running for three different owners: Carpe Diem and Stanford for Stonestreet Stables, and Itsaknockout and Materiality. Two of the colts have fathers that won the Derby: Ocho Ocho Ocho, and Dortmund.
Looking at the dam's pedigrees, Ocho Ocho Ocho is the descendant of the great Personal Ensign; Carpe Diem is related to Unbridled's Song, and Materiality is related to Langfuhr. Danzig is on the bottom of the pedigrees of Materiality, Danzig Moon, Dortmund, and Firing Line. Roberto is represented by Keen Ice and Firing Line.
And then there is the big question mark - Mubtaahij. Bred in Ireland, the bay colt is owned by Arab Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum, trained by Michael de Kock of South Africa, and his jockey is Belgium born Christophe Soumillon. This colt has race the mile and a quarter distance before, and won. He has defeated horse that were one and two years older than he. Will he be able to do his best at Churchill Downs today?
Will there be a speed duel on the front end, opening up the finish for a closer? Will someone take the lead and stay in front all the way? Will War Story, the gelding by Northern Afleet win? In truth, I have no idea how this race will run out... I'd like certain jockeys to have a winning ride; I'd like for certain trainers to win; I'd love for certain owners to win. But there can only be one winner - unless we have an unusual dead heat. Just looking at the list of names, I like six; looking at photos, I like five. I'm just going to throw some names out there - Tencendur, Danzig Moon, Firing Line, Far Right, Keen Ice and Frosted - just because I'm not crazy about placing bets on favorites.
Good luck with your bets! And here's hoping there are no accidents or missteps on the track!
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