New Kentucky Derby Odds

With Hoppertunity scratched from the Kentucky Derby with a sore foot, and since Pablo Del Monte's folks decided to not run him on Saturday, the Derby field is now at 19  And since Hoppertunity was the second betting choice in the morning line, Mike Battaglia changed the odds on 7 colts.  Here they are, in order, with their Position and new odds:
 1.    Vicar's In Trouble    changed to   20 to 1
 2.    Harry's Holiday     stayed at   50 to 1
 3.    Uncle Sigh    stayed at   30 to 1
 4.    Danza   changed to   8 to 1
 5.    California Chrome  stayed at  5 to 2 - the betting favorite, unbeaten in 3 races
 6.    Samraat   changed to  15 to 1
 7.    We Miss Artie   stayed at  50 to 1
 8.    General a Rod   stayed at  15 to 1
 9.    Vinceremos    stayed at   30 to 1
10.   Wildcat Red   stayed at   15 to 1
12.   Dance With Fate   stayed at   20 to 1
13.   Chitu    stayed at  20 to 1
14.   Medal Count   stayed at   20 to 1
15.   Tapiture    changed to   12 to 1
16.   Intense Holiday   changed to   8 to 1
17.   Commanding Curve    stayed at   50 to 1
18.   Candy Boy    changed to   15 to 1
19.   Ride On Curlin    stayed at   15 to 1
20.   Wicked Strong    changed to   6 to 1

  So, who do I like? With his looks, breeding, and winning ways, I like California Chrome.  But.  He is the betting favorite, so I will not bet on him to win, though I might use him in an exacta or trifecta bet.
   I really like Vicar's In Trouble, ridden by Rosie Napravnik, who won the Oaks today.  But they're breaking from the one spot in a 19 horse field - they will have to be very lucky to win.
   I like the breeding of Wicked Strong, Intense Holiday, Medal Count, Vinceremos, and Harry's Holiday (but HH is stuck down in the second gate post).
   I love the looks of California Chrome, Uncle Sigh, Samraat, Wildcat Red, Chitu, and Intense Holiday.
  Unless one of them is scratched, I'll put my money on:  Vicar's In Trouble, Wildcat Red, Medal Count, Intense Holiday,Wicked Strong and Commanding Curve....
  I'll probably lose everything...  But that's the fun and thrill of the Sport of Kings!

The Kentucky Oaks Field

Yesterday, I listed the 13 fillies who will Run for the Lilies on Friday, 2 May, in the 11th race at Churchill Downs.  The starting gate is scheduled to open at 5:49 (EDT) for the one and one-eighth mile race that has a purse of $1 million.  First, little bits of trivia:
 Of the 13 fillies running, 4 are chestnut and 9 are bay.
 12 of the 13 fillies were born in Kentucky - Thank You Marylou is a Virginia-bred.
 3 fillies are Grade I winners, 2 are Grade 2 winners, and 2 are Grade 3 winners; 2 fillies are Black Type winners; 1 filly won a Listed raced; 1 filly was second in a Black Type race, 1 filly was second in a Grade 3 race, and 1 filly was second in a Grade 2 race.
 Six of the 13 fillies are related to *Forli, whose son, For Bow, was our stallion of choice at Sleepy Hollow Horse Farm, in Micanopy.
  Please keep in mind that I haven't seen any of these fillies in the flesh, nor have I seen any of them race - not even on film.  My choices are made purely from pedigrees, still photos, jockeys and trainers...  I am not in any way, shape, or form, a true bettor - I give myself  $50  to bet with on the day of the Kentucky Oaks and the Derby, the Preakness, the Belmont, and the two days of the Breeders Cup.  If I win, I feel that my study of pedigrees is going well - if I lose, I shrug.  The best horse does not always win the race - there is racing luck to consider, how the horse breaks from the starting gate, where the horse is positioned in the starting gate, who the jockey is, whether there are any accidents, any bumping, any interference, and (heaven forbid!) any break downs; not to mention how the track is "running", whether it has a bias, and whether there are speed horses in the race...  So many factors to try and master...  But that's half the fun of it.
  Here is a list of the horses related to Court Jester and Shadowfax at Sleepy Hollow:  Please Explain (50 to 1) is a Black Type winner, with mfbl (My Favorite Blood Line) in her dam's pedigree;  Rosalind (8 to 1) is a Grade 1 winner, with mfbl in her dam's line; Fashion Plate (6 to 1) is a Grade 1 winner, with mfbl in the sire's pedigree; Aurelia's Belle (50 to 1) has mfbl in both the sire and the dam's lines; Unbridled Forever (12 to 1) is a Listed winner, with mfbl in both her top and bottom; and My Miss Sophia (8 to 1), also has mfbl in both sire and dam's pedigrees.
  Choosing on looks from photographs only, I like:  Please Explain, Sugar Shock, Rosalind, Fashion Plate, Aurelia's Belle, Unbridled Forever, and Empress of Midway.
  Choosing by pedigree only, I like: Ria Antonia, Rosalind, Aurelia's Belle, Unbridled Forever, and My Miss Sophia.
   Combining the two lists from above, with jockeys, and the fillies' racing histories, I like:  Sugar Shock, Rosalind, Fashion Plate, Unbridled Forever, and Got Lucky.
   ** Untapable is the betting favorite, but I don't believe she will win, even though I'll rooting for her, since Rosie Napravnik will be her jockey.  I also like Ria Antonia, ridden by Mike Smith; she won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies race in November - unless Mike performs some superior reinsmanship, I don't believe she'll win, either....**
  Here's hoping for a wonderful, clean race on Friday!
(And, Churchill Downs had a red face of embarassment yesterday - they were showing the saddle cloths for the Derby horses, and someone pointed out that they had spelled California Chrome's name as "Califorina Chrome" ...  )