The Kentucky Oaks Field

Yesterday, I listed the 13 fillies who will Run for the Lilies on Friday, 2 May, in the 11th race at Churchill Downs.  The starting gate is scheduled to open at 5:49 (EDT) for the one and one-eighth mile race that has a purse of $1 million.  First, little bits of trivia:
 Of the 13 fillies running, 4 are chestnut and 9 are bay.
 12 of the 13 fillies were born in Kentucky - Thank You Marylou is a Virginia-bred.
 3 fillies are Grade I winners, 2 are Grade 2 winners, and 2 are Grade 3 winners; 2 fillies are Black Type winners; 1 filly won a Listed raced; 1 filly was second in a Black Type race, 1 filly was second in a Grade 3 race, and 1 filly was second in a Grade 2 race.
 Six of the 13 fillies are related to *Forli, whose son, For Bow, was our stallion of choice at Sleepy Hollow Horse Farm, in Micanopy.
  Please keep in mind that I haven't seen any of these fillies in the flesh, nor have I seen any of them race - not even on film.  My choices are made purely from pedigrees, still photos, jockeys and trainers...  I am not in any way, shape, or form, a true bettor - I give myself  $50  to bet with on the day of the Kentucky Oaks and the Derby, the Preakness, the Belmont, and the two days of the Breeders Cup.  If I win, I feel that my study of pedigrees is going well - if I lose, I shrug.  The best horse does not always win the race - there is racing luck to consider, how the horse breaks from the starting gate, where the horse is positioned in the starting gate, who the jockey is, whether there are any accidents, any bumping, any interference, and (heaven forbid!) any break downs; not to mention how the track is "running", whether it has a bias, and whether there are speed horses in the race...  So many factors to try and master...  But that's half the fun of it.
  Here is a list of the horses related to Court Jester and Shadowfax at Sleepy Hollow:  Please Explain (50 to 1) is a Black Type winner, with mfbl (My Favorite Blood Line) in her dam's pedigree;  Rosalind (8 to 1) is a Grade 1 winner, with mfbl in her dam's line; Fashion Plate (6 to 1) is a Grade 1 winner, with mfbl in the sire's pedigree; Aurelia's Belle (50 to 1) has mfbl in both the sire and the dam's lines; Unbridled Forever (12 to 1) is a Listed winner, with mfbl in both her top and bottom; and My Miss Sophia (8 to 1), also has mfbl in both sire and dam's pedigrees.
  Choosing on looks from photographs only, I like:  Please Explain, Sugar Shock, Rosalind, Fashion Plate, Aurelia's Belle, Unbridled Forever, and Empress of Midway.
  Choosing by pedigree only, I like: Ria Antonia, Rosalind, Aurelia's Belle, Unbridled Forever, and My Miss Sophia.
   Combining the two lists from above, with jockeys, and the fillies' racing histories, I like:  Sugar Shock, Rosalind, Fashion Plate, Unbridled Forever, and Got Lucky.
   ** Untapable is the betting favorite, but I don't believe she will win, even though I'll rooting for her, since Rosie Napravnik will be her jockey.  I also like Ria Antonia, ridden by Mike Smith; she won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies race in November - unless Mike performs some superior reinsmanship, I don't believe she'll win, either....**
  Here's hoping for a wonderful, clean race on Friday!
(And, Churchill Downs had a red face of embarassment yesterday - they were showing the saddle cloths for the Derby horses, and someone pointed out that they had spelled California Chrome's name as "Califorina Chrome" ...  )