Rain For the Oaks and Derby?

For the past few days, the weather forecasts for both the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday have remained the same.  There's a 40% chance of rain Friday afternoon and evening for the Oaks, and a 60% chance of rain for the Derby.
   The early betting favorite for the Kentucky Oaks is Bellafina, a huge daughter of Quality Road, out of the Malibu Moon mare, Akron Moon.  Bellafina has raced 8 times, winning six, and finishing second in her first start.  The only other time was when she "didn't fire" in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Filly race at Churchill Downs, where she finished fourth. And Bellafina has three Grade 1 wins under her belt, too.  She is trained by Simon Callaghan, and will have her regular jockey, Flavian Plat, in the irons for Friday's race.  Since there is a full field, the winner's share of the $1.25 million purse is $705,520 (not the $750,000 I had earlier reported).

Bellafina winning the Santa Anita Oaks

The betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby is Omaha Beach, a dark bay son of War Front, out of the Seeking the Gold mare, Charming. Because of his pedigree, he ran his first three races on turf courses, getting two seconds and a third place.  Richard Mandella, his trainer, noticed the colt seemed to run better on the main dirt track during his morning workouts, and decided to try racing him on the dirt. Omaha Beach finished second in his first dirt race; he won his second race by 9 lengths.  Then he shipped to Arkansas and won his division of the Rebel Stakes, and then won the Arkansas Derby in rain on a sloppy track.  Jockey Mike Smith had to choose between riding Roadster and Omaha Beach in the Kentucky Derby.  Mike chose Omaha Beach - so, even though he's the betting favorite, that's who I'll be betting on....

Omaha Beach winning the Arkansas Derby under Mike Smith

A Palomino Is Tenth Foal; Odd Omaha Beach Headline

Photographer Darcy Cole was the first person to spot the tenth foal yesterday morning - a solid palomino baby for dam Two Teagues Golden Girl (aka Goldie), a three-year-old out of Lefty's Checkmark and sired by Prince of Tides.  Goldie has spent almost all of her time with Saltwater Renegade (aka Beach Boy), but she was covered once by the Don Leonard Stud II.  I'm pretty sure it's Beach Boy's baby - but there's no guarantee.  This is Goldie's first foal, and if it is sired by Beach Boy, it's the first foal for the Misty family young stallion, who is four this Spring.  Due to the distance, Darcy and her husband Steve weren't able to get good photos of the foal, but a couple hours later, Captain Dan got some nice shots of it....

I was freaked out on Sunday to read that Omaha Beach (my current favorite for the Kentucky Derby) was being treated for a quarter crack.  I couldn't find the article with that headline, but I was able to find a short aside that stated that Omaha Beach's regular blacksmith had flown in from California to re-shoe the colt.  Turns out he's had a quarter crack for several months, and won his last three races with it....  So I'm not going to worry about it for the Derby.  And jockey Mike Smith has decided to ride Omaha Beach in the Run for the Roses instead of Roadster.  It's 12 days to the Derby and I'm starting to get excited!