Rain For the Oaks and Derby?

For the past few days, the weather forecasts for both the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday have remained the same.  There's a 40% chance of rain Friday afternoon and evening for the Oaks, and a 60% chance of rain for the Derby.
   The early betting favorite for the Kentucky Oaks is Bellafina, a huge daughter of Quality Road, out of the Malibu Moon mare, Akron Moon.  Bellafina has raced 8 times, winning six, and finishing second in her first start.  The only other time was when she "didn't fire" in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Filly race at Churchill Downs, where she finished fourth. And Bellafina has three Grade 1 wins under her belt, too.  She is trained by Simon Callaghan, and will have her regular jockey, Flavian Plat, in the irons for Friday's race.  Since there is a full field, the winner's share of the $1.25 million purse is $705,520 (not the $750,000 I had earlier reported).

Bellafina winning the Santa Anita Oaks

The betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby is Omaha Beach, a dark bay son of War Front, out of the Seeking the Gold mare, Charming. Because of his pedigree, he ran his first three races on turf courses, getting two seconds and a third place.  Richard Mandella, his trainer, noticed the colt seemed to run better on the main dirt track during his morning workouts, and decided to try racing him on the dirt. Omaha Beach finished second in his first dirt race; he won his second race by 9 lengths.  Then he shipped to Arkansas and won his division of the Rebel Stakes, and then won the Arkansas Derby in rain on a sloppy track.  Jockey Mike Smith had to choose between riding Roadster and Omaha Beach in the Kentucky Derby.  Mike chose Omaha Beach - so, even though he's the betting favorite, that's who I'll be betting on....

Omaha Beach winning the Arkansas Derby under Mike Smith

Justify Wins Kentucky Derby; Saxon Warrior Wins English 2,000 Guineas

The first races in both the American and British Triple Crowns were run today.  At Newmarket, in England, the 2,000 Guineas, contested at a mile on the turf, saw trainer Aidan O'Brien take his ninth victory, with Saxon Warrior.  Saxon Warrior is a bay colt by Deep Impact, and out of the Galileo mare Maybe.  Aidan O'Brien's 19-year-old son Donnacha was the jockey, while O'Brien himself was at Churchill Downs with Mendelssohn for the Kentucky Derby.  Saxon Warrior set off at odds of  3 to 1, and ran the mile over a course rated "good" in 1:36.55.  Tip To Win, a 50 to 1 long-shot, was second with Masar in third.

  In Kentucky, three inches of rain fell before the Derby and fell throughout the race.  A full starting gate of 20 colts broke nicely while a crowd of 157,813 watched. The 5 to 2 betting favorite was Justify, a chestnut son of Scat Daddy out of the mare Stage Magic.  Justify is trained by Bob Baffert, and was under the guidance of veteran jockey Mike Smith.  Justify had never raced on a sloppy track, but several other colts in the race had, and those boys had won by impressive margins.  Smith rode Justify out of the gate in a hurry, and settled about 8 paths out from the rail, with Promises Fulfilled in the lead close to the rail.  The first quarter and half-miles were run in jaw-dropping times for a sloppy track - 22.24 seconds for the first quarter, and 45.77 for the half-mile.   
   But Justify just cruised on.  He won the race in 2:04.20 - and without a speck of mud on his face or chest.  This made the fifth Kentucky Derby win for Bob Baffert, and the second for Mike Smith.  Good Magic tried to press Justify at the top of the stretch, under the whip, while Smith just sat still on Justify and pulled away.  Good Magic finished second, with Audible third, Instilled Regard fourth and My Boy Jack in fifth.  And Justify broke to so-called "Apollo curse" when he won the Derby today, becoming the first horse that did not race as a two-year-old in 136 years to win the first leg of America's Triple Crown.
   For a $2 win ticket on Justify, the return was $7.80; for a $2 place bet on Good Magic, one received $9.20; for a $2 show wager on Audible, the payout was $5.80.  Return on a $2 exacta bet was $69.60; on a $1 trifecta it was $141.40; and on a $1 superfecta, the return was $19,618.20.

The full order of finish follows:

1.     Justify     by 2 1/2 lengths

2.     Good Magic  by a nose

3.     Audible   by 2 lengths

4.     Instilled Regard

5.     My Boy Jack

6.     Bravazo

7.     Hofburg

8.     Lone Sailor

9.     Vino Rosso

10.   Solomini

11.   Firenze Fire

12.   Bolt d'Oro

13.   Flameaway

14.   Enticed

15.   Promises Fulfilled

16.   Free Drop Billy

17.   Noble Indy

18.   Combatant

19.   Magnum Moon

20.   Mendelssohn    (Aidan O'Brien's entry)

Always Dreaming Wins Kentucky Derby

Always Dreaming, a bay son of Bodemeister, won yesterday's Kentucky Derby in a time of 2 minutes and 3.59 seconds over a sloppy track.  The colt, out of the In Excess (Ire) mare Above Perfection, began the race as the betting favorite.  He hung back, allowing State of Honor to lead for almost 3/4  of a mile, then Always Dreaming moved into another gear for jockey John Velazquez, and won by 2 and 3/4 lengths.  Lookin At Lee finished second, five lengths ahead of Battle of Midway.  A length further back there was a photo for fourth through seventh place.  The Irish-bred colt Thunder Snow, came out of the starting gate slowly, and then began to buck.  He was pulled up by his jockey, but had no injury.
    A $2 win bet on Always Dreaming paid $11.40; a $2 place bet on Lookin At Lee paid $26.60; and a $2 show bet on Battle of Midway paid $20.80.  A $2 exacta bet paid $336.20; a $2 trifecta bet paid $16,594.40; and a $2 superfecta bet paid $151,949.00.

Always Dreaming galloping out after winning the 2017 Kentucky Derby.

The complete order of finish follows:

1     Always Dreaming

2     Lookin At Lee

3     Battle of Midway

4     Classic Empire

5     Practical Joke

6     Tapwrit

7     Gunnevera

8     McCraken

9     Gormley

10   Irish War Cry

11   Hence

12   Untrapped

13   Girvin

14   Patch

15   J Boys Echo

16   Sonneteer

17   Fast and Accurate

18   Irap

19   State of Honor

dnf    Thunder Snow

Kentucky Oaks Today, Derby Tomorrow

It was raining early this morning at Churchill Downs, and the main track surface was given a "sloppy" rating, while the turf track is listed as "good."  The weather forecasters say there will be periods of both rain and sun throughout today.   The Kentucky Oaks, the female version of the Derby, is scheduled to leave the starting gate at 6:12 EST this afternoon.  There is a full field of 15 fillies, who will each carry 121 pounds, over the main track for 1 and 1/8 miles.  The purse for this year's Oaks is $1 million...  I'll be listing post position, filly, morning line betting odds, sire, and coat color. All of the Oaks entries were born in Kentucky.
1     Ever So Clever         20 to 1         Medaglia d'Oro    dark bay
2     Lockdown                20 to 1          First Defence       dark bay
3     Mopotism                 20 to 1         Uncle Mo             bay
4     Paradise Woods         5 to 2          Union Rags          bay
5     Jordan's Henny         30 to 1         Henny Hughes     gray/roan
6     Vexatious                  20 to 1         Giant's Causeway   bay
7     Farrell                        5 to 1          Malibu Moon        bay
8     Sailor's Valentine      30 to 1         Mizzen Mast         gray/roan
9     Wicked Lick             30 to 1         Maclean's Music   chestnut
10   Miss Sky Warrior       9 to 2         First Samurai         dark bay
11   Tequilita                   20 to 1          Union Rags            bay
12   Daddy's Lil Darling   20 to 1        Scat Daddy            dark bay
13   Abel Tasman               5 to 1         Quality Road         bay
14   Salty                            6 to 1          Quality Road        bay
15   Summer Luck            30 to 1         Lookin At Lucky   bay

There have been no scratches in the Kentucky Derby field for tomorrow.  Girvin, who has a quarter crack in one hoof, will be wearing glued-on shoes.  Following are the 20 starters, with their jockeys and trainers listed...
1     Looking at Lee         Corey Lanerie                   Steven Asmussen
2     Thunder Snow          Christophe Soumillon      Saeed bin Suroor  
3     Fast and Accurate    Channing Hill                  Michael Maker 
4     Untrapped                 Ricardo Santana, Jr        Steven Asmussen 
5     Always Dreaming     John Velazquez                Todd Pletcher
6     State of Honor          Jose Lezcano                    Mark Casse
7     Girvin                        Mike Smith                       Joe Sharp
8     Hence                        Florent Geroux                 Steven Asmussen
9     Irap                           Mario Guttierrez               Doug O'Neill
10   Gunnevera                Javier Castellano              Antonio Sano
11   Battle of Midway      Flavio Prat                       Jerry Hollendorfer
12   Sonneteer                  Kent Desormeaux            Keith Desormeaux
13   J Boys Echo              Luis Saez                          Dale Romans
14   Classic Empire         Julien Leparoux              Mark Casse
15   McCraken                Brian J Hernandez, Jr     Ian Wilkes
16   Tapwrit                     Jose Ortiz                          Todd Pletcher
17   Irish War Cry          Rajiv Maragh                    Graham Motion
18   Gormley                    Victor Espinoza                 John Shirreffs
19   Practical Joke          Joel Rosario                       Chad Brown
20   Patch                         Tyler Gaffalione                Todd Pletcher

May all the races be cleanly run (figuratively, since there will be mud everywhere), and may no horses or jockeys have any injuries......

Bits and Pieces

Celebrating the birth of another foal yesterday - a chestnut colt by Riptide, out of Bay Girl.  That makes 23 new babies so far on the southern end of Assateague.  And the tidal charts seem to indicate that the Pony Swim from Assateague to Chincoteague on Wednesday, 26 July, will happen early in the morning, between 6 and 8 o'clock.
    With the defection of two colts from the Kentucky Derby field, the betting odds have changed a bit since Saturday when I posted them.  Wednesday afternoon, once the post positions have been drawn, I'll again post the entrants, with their opening betting odds and gate numbers.
    Saturday was the 100th day of this 45th Administration of US government.  There was a huge March for Climate Change Awareness that took place around the world.  The tangerine tyrant refused to go to the annual White House Correspondents Dinner, calling all reporters purveyors of  "fake news."  Instead, this elected official visited a convention hall in Pennsylvania, where many empty seats could be seen, and had another "Rally."  He was elected.  He is spending tax-payers money for these stupid rallies just to massage his own ego.  Today, he golfed. OK - everyone needs a day off; but he swore on the election trail that he'd never play golf, he wouldn't have time to do it.  What a bunch of crap!
    If you want a really good laugh, read the transcript from Sunday's broadcast of Face the Nation.  It can be perused at  http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-interview-full-transcript-face-the-nation/  The man cannot change his thought patterns; he cannot change subjects; he seems to feel the need to browbeat his questioner.  That interview was taped on Saturday, his 100th day.
    Then, Reince Priebus tells an interviewer on another Sunday morning show, that the White House, including the President, is discussing how they can change libel laws.  How they can change the First Amendment to the US Constitution that allows freedom of speech, because newspapers are printing "fake news" that hurst the so-called President's feelings.  When the host asked the question a second time, Priebus, again responded that that this administration wants to overturn the First Amendment.  Now that  is frightening.
     I highly recommend the Patricia Cornwell book, released earlier this year, titled Ripper - The Secret Life of Walter Sickert.  If you are easily upset by reading about gory things, or from seeing gory photographs, this book is not for you at all.  The author lays out a timeline, and follows the man she has identified as Jack the Ripper throughout it.  She has done an incredible amount of research, assisted by today's sciences, and presents a clear case.  I'm convinced.  And it seems almost incredible that the man is a famous artist, was an apprentice of James MacNeill Whistler, and lived until 1942.  Ms Cornwell ties him to multiple other murders, as well as the prostitutes of Whitechapel.  It's a very good read and thoroughly documented.
 
 

One Week to the 2017 Kentucky Derby (w/ correction)

Boulder, Colorado is in the midst of a Spring snow storm while I write this - we've had six inches of snow since last night, and it's still falling steadily.  Low temperature for tonight is forecast as 27 degrees (F), so we're looking at a hard freeze, too.  The roads will be treacherous in the morning.
   In the meantime, elsewhere, it's a week away from the Kentucky Derby, being run, as always, at Churchill Downs Race Track outside of Louisville, Kentucky.  The race is for three-year-olds only, the horses are usually nominated to the race as foals, but can also be supplemented at an additional fee.  The race takes place on the main, dirt track and covers the distance of 1 and 1/4 miles, or 10 furlongs.  It is the first race in the Triple Crown series.  Horses who race in the Kentucky Derby do not have to participate in the following two parts of the Triple Crown; nor do horses who participate in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes have to race in the Kentucky Derby.  All colts carry a uniform 126 pounds; if a filly runs, she carries 123.
    In the past, the cachet of owning a "Derby horse" was such that people would enter horses that should never have stepped foot onto the Churchill Downs track.  There were groups that started in two tiers for race that is generally over in about 2 minutes.  (I can understand the large numbers of entrants in the Grand National Steeplechase - that covers 4 and 1/2 miles - but not for the Derby.)  The number of starters in the Kentucky Derby is now limited to the 20 horses with the most qualifying points from approved races.  Thunder Snow was supplemented yesterday by Godolphin Stables.
   Since horses, while large, are really delicate creatures, there is normally a list of the top twenty-five qualifiers available for the race.  Today, my informant only listed the top 21 horses, so there might be one or three more possibilities.  The actual entries and post positions will be drawn on Wednesday, 3 May.  At the moment the only horse that is known to be a questionable starter is Girvin, who has a quarter-crack in a hoof.  (Personally, I wouldn't run a horse with a quarter-crack in any race, but I am neither the owner nor trainer of said colt.)
   So, here is a listing of the top 21 entries for next Saturday's Kentucky Derby.  They are listed by today's predicted odds, shortest betting odds first, with horse coat color and place of nativity, also.
1     Classic Empire    (bay, Kentucky)   5 to 1
2     Always Dreaming    (bay, Kentucky)    5 to 1
3     Irish War Cry     (chestnut, New Jersey)    13 to 2
4     McCraken     (bay, Kentucky)     9 to 1
5     Gunnevera     (chestnut, Kentucky)     12 to 1
6     Gormley     (bay, Kentucky)     14 to 1
7     Practical Joke     (bay, Kentucky)    14 to 1
8     Battalion Runner     (gray, Kentucky)    16 to 1
9     Thunder Snow     (bay, Ireland)    16 to 1
10   Girvin     (bay, Kentucky)     16 to 1
11   Irap     (bay, Kentucky)     20 to 1
12   Malagacy     (chestnut, Kentucky)    22 to 1
13   Hence     (chestnut, Kentucky)     22 to 1
14   Tapwrit     (gray, Kentucky)     25 to 1
15   Lookin At Lee     (bay, Kentucky)    28 to 1
16   Battle of Midway     (bay, Kentucky)    28 to 1
17   J Boys Echo     (bay, Kentucky)     33 to 1
18   Patch     (bay, Kentucky)     40 to 1
19   State of Honor     (bay, Ontario)     40 to 1
20   Untrapped     (bay, Kentucky)     50 to 1
21   Fast and Accurate     (gray, Pennsylvania)     66 to 1

Of the 21 horses listed, 17 were born in Kentucky, 1 in Ireland, 1 in New Jersey, and 1 in Pennsylvania.   Fourteen of the colts are bay, brown, or dark brown; four are chestnut; and three are gray/roans.  Patch, has only one eye, lost to an infection; he is by Union Rags.  And Girvin has a quarter-crack, and is the grandson of Sunday Silence...   That's all for now.

As of 6 pm, EST,  Battalion Runner and Malagacy will not be competing in the Kentucky Derby.  That opens up the field to Sonneteer and Royal Mo.....

Here and There

I know that I have been well-trained by "my pets."  They cry, I wake up.  They walk across me, I wake up.  If the weather is nice, they go to the balcony door and I open it for them; when they come back inside, I close the door behind them.  Our first apartment in Boulder faced east, and since the east wall was 80% glass, the cats awoke with the sun.  That meant that I awoke then, also.  We've been in the new apartment 22 months; the windows face west and south, but the cats (and I) still get up at daybreak.
  My roommate, Beatrice, grew up with dogs, not cats.  She has always been a night owl, sleeping in until 10 a.m. or noon.  She moved in 21 months ago - and she is now an early riser - thanks to my cats.  Nedi has decided that "Auntie Bea" is his person.  He sings to her when he believes she should get up in the morning, and, should she close her bedroom and/or bathroom door, for any reason, she will receive an operatic comment.  I awoke at 6:05 this morning; Nedi went into Bea's room and sang her awake at 6:25.  I had already opened the balcony curtains and blinds, fed the cats, and cleaned the litter boxes.  Nedi, however, wanted Beatrice out in the living room, where she would praise, pet and scratch him.  She has learned that he is extremely persistent.  She is now an early riser, too.
   The last word I got from Chincoteague is that there were twelve foals on Assateague - but two of them have yet to be photographed.  Reports are that May's Grand Slam and Dream Catcher have foaled on the north end of the island, but no photos as yet.
   This Saturday is another planned March against 45 - this one is to raise awareness of, and support for the scientists who believe in the evidence of, Climate Change.  So far, the Marches in Denver have had pretty good weather - cold or warm - but the current forecast for this Saturday is for snow.
   In the years since Franklin Delano Roosevelt made his Fireside Chat radio broadcast regarding his "first hundred days in office" Presidents of the United States have been graded, fairly or not, on their individual achievements since then.  FDR had introduced and pushed through the New Deal, Social Security, and the WPA.  The circus peanut, so far, has signed a bunch of executive orders and is dismantling the Environmental Protection Agency.  More than 80% of appointed positions remain unfilled.  He hasn't held up his end of his campaign promises.  He reeks of lies and under-the-table payments.  He needs to be booted out the White House and Washington.
   In the Kentucky Derby, less than two weeks away, one of the thoroughbred racing prognosticators has said that the following horses make up his "Derby dozen favorites:"  Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry, Gunnevera, Classic Empire, McCraken, J Boys Echo, Hence, Practical Joke, Girvin, Gormley, Battalion Runner, and Irap.
   I hope the rest of your week is great!

Looking At the Kentucky Derby

First, one major item that I forgot to reference about this years running of the Grand National Steeplechase at Aintree - there were no major injuries during or after the race.  There were bumps, bruises, and scrapes - but no torn ligaments, no broken bones.  All forty entries checked out fine the day after the race.  -  Hooray!

We're now a little less than 4 weeks away from the Kentucky Derby - the "holy of holies" of three-year-old thoroughbred racing in the United States.  Only twenty horses will be allowed to start in the race, and the entrants are now scored on a point system for finishing in certain graded stakes races.  First, the horse must be nominated, and pay entry fees to stay nominated, up until March.  Of course, a horse may qualify with entry fees and points, but not run due to other  factors - lameness, illness, or injury.  In fact, if the horse does not feel "right" to the jockey, the jockey can ask to withdraw the horse after the race warm up and before entering the starting gate, or the veterinarian at the starting gate may keep a horse from participating. If a trainer is not happy with the way the horse is exercising, he may be scratched.  In any event, here is a listing of the top 25 horses with their point earnings - horses with the same amount of points are listed alphabetically by name:
1     Girvin        150
2     Gormley    125
3     Irap            113
4     Irish War Cry    110
5     Always Dreaming     100
6     Thunder Snow          100
7     Gunnevera            84
8     Practical Joke       74
9     J Boys Echo         63
10  State of Honor      62
11  Tapwrit                 54
12  Fast and Accurate      50
13  Hence                      50
14  Malagacy                50
15  Battalion Runner     40
16  Battle of Midway     40
17  Cloud Computing    40
18  McCraken                40
19  Patch                        40
20  Untrapped                34
21  Classic Empire        32
22  Local Hero               30
23  Royal Mo                 30
24  Iliad                          20
25  Master Plan              20

  I still think the Derby is wide open this year....

This and That...

Our local wildfire, in Sunshine Canyon, is completely contained, and evacuation orders have been lifted.  No loss of pets or people, no loss of homes - but I'm afraid that nests, burrows, and wildlife were lost...  And there was a fiery public bus crash yesterday in Boulder yesterday; one of our friends has been charged with "careless driving."  We wish Rich the best outcome possible.
   Seek, the Spangled Bengal, with bone cancer in her jaw, is doing a little better.  I'll go spend time with her tonight and Thursday while her Mom is teaching art classes.  Seek eats well for me, and likes to be a lap cat while I'm visiting.  Then I take clients to Denver International at 4 Wednesday morning; Seek again Thursday evening; a quick visit with Pip and Squeak's people on Friday morning; and care of the chickens and cats on Dellwood begins Saturday afternoon...   But no Rosie (sigh) - I know she's in a better place where all parts of her work, but I miss our daily outings.
    In the Kentucky Derby picture, things are getting more cloudy as time goes by and the race gets nearer.  Mastery would probably be the betting favorite today - but he's out of the picture for any spring or summer racing.  The colt won the San Jacinto Stakes by almost 7 lengths, under a hand ride by Mike Smith; 10 strides past the finish line, Mike felt the colt change his movement, and pulled him up.  The colt had suffered a condylar fracture of his left fore cannon.  He's had surgery and is back in his stall in Bob Baffert's barn.  At the moment, Gunnevera has the most points earned for the Kentucky Derby; but a lot of folks are talking about Malagacy's win this weekend in the Rebel Stakes.  Here's the list of the horses with the most points:  (1) Gunnevera,  (2) Mastery - out with broken leg, (3) Tapwrit, (4) J Boys Echo, (5) Malagacy, (6) Epicharis, (7) Girvin, (8) Mont Saint Legame, (9) Practical Joke, (10) Untapped, (11) Classic Empire, (12) El Areeb, (13) Gormley, (14) State of Honor, (15) McCraken, (16) Iliad, (17) Sonneteer, (18) Adirato, (19) Cloud Computing, (20) Wild Shot, (21) Caucus, (22) Guest Suite, (23) Petrov, (24) Lookin At Lee, (25) Term of Art, and (26) Uncontested.  Many more colts have ten points or less; Gunnevera, the leader, has 64; and only 20 colts will start in the Derby on 6 May.
   Spent part of yesterday listening to the House Intelligence Committee asking FBI Director Comey about the current administration and Russia...  Things are getting very interesting.

A Week Before the Preakness, A Week After the Derby

Here we are, seven days after the Kentucky Derby and seven days before the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico in Maryland.  I'm running way behind on my reporting.  The complete order of finish for the Kentucky Derby, the full field of twenty horses, was as follows:  1 - Nyquist;  2 - Exaggerator; 3 - Gun Runner; 4 - Mohaymen; 5 - Suddenbreakingnews; 6 - Destin; 7 - Brody's Cause; 8 - Mo Tom; 9 - Lani; 10 - Mor Spirit; 11 - My Man Sam; 12 - Tom's Ready; 13 - Creator; 14 - Outwork; 15 - Danzing Candy; 16 - Trojan Nation; 17 - Oscar Nominated; 18 - Majesto; 19 - Whitmore; and 20 - Shagaf.  Shagaf had an excuse for finishing last in the Kentucky Derby; he just underwent surgery to remove bone chips in both his left knee and left ankle.  The colt will not run again until 2017.
  Barring illness and/or injury, it looks like a field of 12 (possibly 13) for next Saturday's Preakness at Old Hilltop.  From the Kentucky Derby, Nyquist, Exaggerator and Gun Runner, the top three finishers will carry on.  Lani, the Japanese owned and trained colt, who won the UAE Derby will also continue the Triple Crown trail.  The two colts who were on the Kentucky Derby stand-by roster will also run in the Preakness: Laoban and Cherry Wine.  Other expected entries are Fellowship, Dazzling Gem, Uncle Lino, Collected, Stradivari, and Awesome Speed.
  The owner and trainer of Abiding Star have also expressed interest in running for the Black-eyed Susans.  However, Abiding Star is stabled at Parx Racing, and that facility has been under quarantine for EHV since 1 April.  Abiding Star has never shown any symptoms of the disease, and Pimlico is ready to accept him, as soon as quarantine is lifted, which is expected on May 16 or 17.
  So four colts who raced in the Kentucky Derby will meet with eight or nine colts who did not race 1 and 1/4 miles next Saturday.  Then it's on to the Belmont Stakes three weeks later...  Will Nyquist win the Preakness next week?  Will he be a Triple Crown winner on June 11?  He will have to continue racing well, and have great racing luck to do so.  Great bloodlines, great training, great jockeys, good racing luck, and a great heart and will to win are needed to win America's Triple Crown.

Bits and Pieces

I admitted to signing a petition on Facebook: one that fans sign to, hopefully, get the Denver Broncos to bring Tim Tebow back, to try out as the new starting quarterback.   Believe me, I know all of the pro and con arguments regarding Tebow as an NFL quarterback.  I just happen to like the young man, and he's always been extremely polite when we've met.  -  He reminds me a great deal of Steve Spurrier, and I still love the "ol' ball coach," too.  -  Some folks have commented in support, and others have been blatant in their dislike.  Unless someone starts cursing, I'll let all comments stand…  As I said to a friend, if we all had the same opinion about everything, life would be very boring.

    As of this moment, as far as I know, there are six new foals for 2016 on the southern end of Assateague - the ponies that get sold at the Chincoteague Pony Penning and Auction in July.  Of the six, four are definitely boys, one is definitely a girl, and one hasn't presented any body parts to identify. Wild Island Orchid has the filly; Wildest Dream's bay foal is not yet known, but the other four are boys.  I know that the Chincoteague Volunteer Fire Company has a long-term plan for continuing the herds - each year the foals' bloodlines and conformation are examined.  That decides which foals are designated as "Buy Back" ponies and which are sold to new homes on the mainland, and in other countries.
   I admit that I'm a sucker for baby horses.  I love all of them.  I find all of them cute.  Some foals that other people consider plain, or even ugly, always have some type of beauty.  SO far, I'm in love with all six of the CVFC foals.  I think that Wildest Dream's bay is a filly - and I would love to have her for her size and conformation - not to mention how her strip wiggles like a snake's tail.  But I also really love the other five foals.  Tunie's pinto colt is rugged; and I'd  think the guys would want to keep Lady's buckskin as a replacement for Copper Moose; Lyra's Vega's colt and Wild Island Orchid's filly are beautiful chestnuts.  But, for some reason, I have the feeling that out of the foals born so far, Diamond's Jewel's pinto colt by Riptide will bring the most bidders.  Unless another truly magnificently marked foal arrives - which is always a possibility with our ponies!
   And I've been informed that the (so far) single foal up on the Maryland end of Assateague is also a colt - by Yankee, out of Carol's Girl.

    After the 18.3 inches of soggy snow that fell for four days, most has since melted.  The apple tree in Lynn's yard lost a large limb, and a few willow withies came down, but there was no other damage here.  Most of the snow that was pushed up under the bird feeder tree at my apartment has also melted - I put out 3 pounds of sunflower seeds for the birds and a pound of walnuts, almonds and Brazil nuts for the squirrels today.  I had to clear my throat for Bertrando to realize that I was standing two feet away from him while he was stuffing his face at the feeder….  He looked very surprised, so I was glad it was just me.

    Cupid, the betting favorite for the Arkansas Derby (who finished tenth of eleven), has been diagnosed with a "breathing disorder" and will not participate in the Kentucky Derby.  I wonder if he had an entrapped epiglottis?  I believe that the current betting favorite for the Derby is Nyquist.

Just Stuff...

One of my clients was due to fly out of Denver International Airport this morning for a week in Mexico.  I contacted her Wednesday afternoon, asking for her flight time, and what I time needed to be ready for her pick-up, to return the car to her home.  I also commented that the weather for Saturday (today) looked interesting.  She responded that the flight left DIA at 8 a.m., and we'd need to be at the airport at 6 a.m., so how about a 5 a.m. meet time?  Then she asked about the weather.  I responded that there was a "four day rain-snow event" expected to begin Friday afternoon.  The client said we'd "play it by ear."  Thursday night, she informed me that she and her friend would stay at the newly opened DIA motel Friday night, so she'd pick me up after supper Friday.  Friday evening, she called and informed me her flight was cancelled.  (It had begun to rain at 11:45 that morning, and weather forecasters said DIA would be hugely impacted as the rain turned to snow.)  They couldn't get a flight down to Mexico until Sunday, or, probably, Monday.  The resort in Mexico could not extend their reservations.  They would try to get a flight out sooner, even if it meant hop-scotching around the country to get down to Mexico...  At 10 p.m., the client's daughter called and asked if I could arrive and stay at the house beginning early this morning - to which I responded, "Of course."  It seems that the client was able to book a flight from DIA last night to San Francisco, and then hop down to Mexico - arriving there so she could make use of her 7 day reservation...    (And, by the way, it started snowing in Boulder at 6:30 this morning, as I was on my way to the client's home.)
   It will be interesting to see just how much precipitation falls here.  We've had intermittent rain, varying from a drizzle to a quick downpour, for almost 20 hours, along with the wet snow that began two and a half hours ago....  I can see a build-up of white stuff on grassy areas, but our balcony (and lights) are just wet and dripping, as are road surfaces.  The forecasters said that Boulder could receive up to 15 inches of snow - we'll see,
   Today is one of the last major pre-Kentucky Derby races - the Arkansas Derby will take place at Oaklawn Park today.  Last year, trainer Bob Baffert had the betting favorite with American Pharoah, who went on to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.  This year, Bob Baffert again has the betting favorite, a grey colt named Cupid, a son of Tapit.  There are twelve scheduled runners in the Arkansas Derby - ten colts and two geldings.  Three of the colts are sired by Tapit - Cupid, Creator, and Gray Sky.  The colt breaking from post twelve, Gettysburg, was sired by Pioneer of the Nile, the sire of last year's winner, American Pharoah.   Today's race will probably decide the betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby  on May 7.

Horse Racing Is Getting Interesting, Again

I have to say that I was thoroughly impressed (all over again) by California Chrome's performance in the $10 million Dubai WorldCup race yesterday.  I saw it live, on a racing channel, and I wasn't sure what to expect.  I loved California Chrome two years ago when he won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.  I wasn't that upset that he lost the Belmont, but his owner's hateful, hurtful, bombastic tirade after the race was over caused me to lose interest in the horse, himself.  Last year, CC's owner boasted that he'd win the Dubai World Cup race, but CC finished second.  He did not race well in England.  As a five-year-old, this year, the owner stated that the horse was "five lengths better" for the same race.  While European horses horses frequently run longer races (on the turf) than American horses, it's highly unusual to have a mile-and-a-quarter dirt race for older horses - excepting the Breeders Cup Classic.  I was very excited when California Chrome won the World Cup race yesterday by a distance of five lengths...  Not only did he run and win convincingly, he ran three and four paths out for most of the trip, and his saddle slipped backwards during the race.  Jockey Victor Espinoza made a thrilling and athletic ride on the young stallion; at the finish line, Chrome's girth was around his last rib, instead of behind his elbows...  All I can say is Wow!

The Kentucky Derby, to be run on May 7 this year, is beginning to look like a delightful free-for-all.  The three top picks are generally agreed to be Nyquist, by Uncle Mo; Songbird by Medaglia d'Oro, and Mohayman by Tapit.  Lani, another son of Tapit, won the UAE Derby earlier this week, and secured a gate position for the iconic May race at Churchill Downs.   Gun Runner was impressive winning the Louisiana Derby yesterday.  Cupid, another son of Tapit trained by Bob Baffert, won the Rebel Stakes on 19 March.  And it looks like American Pioneer will be entered in the Arkansas Derby ...   Yep, I love horse racing in the Spring!

Preakness a Rematch of the Derby?

If all goes according to plan, and none of the horses have problems, it looks as if American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund will face each other again in the Preakness Stakes at old Hilltop.

Left to right: American Pharoah, Firing Line, and Dortmund

Frosted, who finished in fourth place will return to New York, and not run in the Preakness.  But, as in all the other years, new, fresh colts will be coming in to race against the Kentucky Derby contenders.  I still cringe when I remember the tirade that one of California Chrome's owners unleashed after his loss in the Belmont last year...  There is nothing, anywhere, that states that the colts who compete in all three of the Triple Crown races - the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes, and the Belmont Stakes - shouldn't, couldn't, and will not run against fresh challengers in the second and third parts of the Triple Crown races.  That is one of the measures of a true champion - to be able to race three different distances over three different tracks in three different states in a period of five weeks, and to be able to win all three races against any and all other entrants. -  Jeez, I'm getting myself upset about it, which is stupid and nonproductive.

   The Zayat family, who owns American Pharoah, apparently loved his looks, as they bred his mother, Littleprincessemma, back to Pioneerof the Nile in both 2013 and 2014.  Here are some "family" photos:

Sire:  Pioneerof the Nile

Dam:  Littleprincessemma

American Pharoah as a foal

2014 filly is a full sister to American Pharoah

2015 colt, full brother, reportedly named Irish Pharoah

Snow, Betting And Stealing Food

Today is the last day that Loveland Ski Resort is open for skiing...  Looking towards the mountains, I can see that Sugarloaf has no snow, the Indian Peaks are almost completely snow covered, and Mount Audubon still has a total snow covering.  It was in the mid-70s (F) here yesterday, and we had a thunderstorm about 2 in the afternoon - that happened on both Friday and Saturday.  So May is arriving with afternoon and evening thunderstorms, which is fine with me.
  I did not actually bet any monies on the Kentucky Oaks and the Derby this year, and it's a good thing.  My betting choices were awful this year, and since I'm trying to hang onto my dollars for my summer vacation, I'm glad I didn't place any.  Lovely Maria  is a beautifully bred filly, who didn't get the respect she deserved in the Kentucky Oaks.  I did not think that American Pharoah would live up to his racing history and obvious talent at Churchill Downs.  Boy, was I ever wrong.   I can only try to do better for the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, which means I'll have to release my dislike of betting favorites.
   If I'm extremely hungry, I'm lucky to be able to eat three pieces of a large pizza from Pizza Hut.  I ate two pieces yesterday, and closed the remainder (6 big slices) inside the box inside the wall oven in the kitchen.  I left the house for 25 minutes, to walk over to a house and feed and love a cat.  When I got back, Rosie looked guilty about something.  Then I realized the oven door was barely ajar - so I thought Rose had tried to reach, but not actually accessed, the pizza - especially since the box was still closed and the napkin was folded neatly along the front edge.  I was, therefore, very surprised when I opened the box an hour or so later, to have a third slice of pizza.  The box was completely empty.  I can't imagine why, but Rosie was up and down all night long, drinking lots of water, and needing to go outside and relieve herself.  My mistake.  From now on, I'll have to place the box inside the refrigerator, with a big chair propped under the door handle.  Sometimes Rosie is too smart for her own good.

Derby Day Scratch - And the Chincoteague Seafood Festival

I wish I was in Virginia today - more specifically, I wish I was on the Eastern Shore, on Chincoteague Island.  Today is the 47th annual Seafood Festival - you buy a ticket, and you eat all you can of any offered seafood - oysters, clams, crabs, shrimp, scallops, mussels, and fish - served fresh, raw, or cooked in an infinite number of ways....  The Chincoteague Seafood Festival is four hours of heaven on earth, from noon until 4 p.m.   I hope you can enjoy this delectable delight at some point in time!
   My betting choices stunk yesterday for the Kentucky Oaks, so I don't think you should trust my judgement on today's Derby.  Today's post time is at 6:24 p.m. (EDT), and, with the scratch of El Kabeir yesterday, and the unexpected scratch of International Star this morning, there will be eighteen colts running for the Roses in the 141st annual Kentucky Derby.  With the scratch of El Kabeir, Calvin Borel is without a Derby mount for the first time in years.  Kerwin "Booboo" Clark, who won the Oaks aboard Lovely Maria, has never had a mount in the Derby...  Maybe next year Booboo will have a chance.  What is interesting about the scratch of International Star, owned by the Ramsey family, is that three of their other horses were scratched from running today....
  Most handicappers agree that this will end up being a two-horse race between betting favorite American Pharoah, ridden by Victor Espinoza, and trained by Bob Baffert, and Dortmund, ridden by Martin Garcia, and also trained by Bob Baffert.  Everything depends upon racing luck, and, in reality, this race is wide open...  And I don't know how the scratch of International Star will affect the starting gate positions  - will they be shifted one over, again?  Or will they run with the twelve gate empty?  Three Hall of Fame trainers have entries:  D Wayne Lukas has Mr. Z, Nick Zito has Fragment, and Bob Baffert has the two favorites, American Pharaoh and Dortmund.  Todd Pletcher has four colts running for three different owners:  Carpe Diem and Stanford for Stonestreet Stables, and Itsaknockout and Materiality.  Two of the colts have fathers that won the Derby: Ocho Ocho Ocho, and Dortmund.
  Looking at the dam's pedigrees, Ocho Ocho Ocho is the descendant of the great Personal Ensign; Carpe Diem is related to Unbridled's Song, and Materiality is related to Langfuhr.  Danzig is on the bottom of the pedigrees of Materiality, Danzig Moon, Dortmund, and Firing Line.  Roberto is represented by Keen Ice and Firing Line.
  And then there is the big question mark - Mubtaahij.  Bred in Ireland, the bay colt is owned by Arab Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum, trained by Michael de Kock of South Africa, and his jockey is Belgium born Christophe Soumillon.  This colt has race the mile and a quarter distance before, and won.  He has defeated horse that were one and two years older than he.  Will he be able to do his best at Churchill Downs today?
  Will there be a speed duel on the front end, opening up the finish for a closer? Will someone take the lead and stay in front all the way?  Will War Story, the gelding  by Northern Afleet win?  In truth, I have no idea how this race will run out...  I'd like certain jockeys to have a winning ride; I'd like for certain trainers to win; I'd love for certain owners to win.  But there can only be one winner - unless we have an unusual dead heat.  Just looking at the list of names, I like six; looking at photos, I like five.   I'm just going to throw some names out there - Tencendur, Danzig Moon, Firing Line, Far Right, Keen Ice and Frosted - just because I'm not crazy about placing bets on favorites.
  Good luck with your bets!  And here's hoping there are no accidents or missteps on the track!

Looking Ahead to Next Weekend

Six days from now, the best three-year-old fillies in the Americas will contest the 141st running of the Kentucky Oaks.  Besides being a celebration of girls in racing, in recent years Oaks day has become a rallying point for the fight against breast cancer; Oaks Day is now Think Pink Day, also.  Hats will be the rage for Friday and Saturday - but my personal concentration is on the horses.  Final nominations have not yet been made, and the Oaks is not known for having a full starting gate, like the Derby.  However, these are the fillies that are the top twenty holding points for inclusion into the Oaks:  (1) Condo Commando, (2) I'm a Chatterbug, (3) Stellar Wind, (4) Birdatthewire, (5) Lovely Maria, (6) Include Betty, (7) Oceanwave, (8) Angela Renee, (9) Sarah Sis, (10) Maybellene, (11) Eskingformoney, (12) Puca, (13) Shook Up, (14) Luminance, (15) Forever Unbridled, (16) Achiever's Legacy, (17) Money'soncharlotte, (18) Danessa Deluxe, (19) Callback, and (20) Wonder Gal.  The Kentucky Oaks will be run on Friday, 1 May, and will be aired live on the NBC Sports Network.  All of the girls will carry 121 pounds in the race that covers one and one-eighth miles.
  Seven days from now, the boys will meet in the Kentucky Derby.  All twenty stalls in the starting gate are expected to be full for the mile and a quarter race.  Each colt will carry 126 pounds.  Other than Mubtaahij, none of the three-year-olds have ever raced this far.  This morning, it was announced that Madefromlucky, who was in 20th place in the points ranking, will not run in the Derby, but will be pointed at the Peter Pan Stakes, instead.  Here is a listing of the top twenty-one colts listed for the Derby, as of this morning.  I list one horse on the bubble, as he has been working for the Derby, and if another horse is scratched, he'll make the cut, and will likely run...  (1) International Star, (2) Dortmund, (3) Carpe Diem, (4) American Pharoah, (5) Frosted, (6) Mubtaahij, (7) Materiality, (8) El Kabeir, (9) Upstart, (10) Far Right, (11) Itsaknockout, (12) Firing Line, (13) Danzig Moon, (14) War Story, (15) Tencendur, (16) Stanford, (17) Mr. Z, (18) Ocho Ocho Ocho, (19) Bolo, (20) Keen Ice, and, on the bubble, (21) Frammento.
  As entries for the races are announced, along with post positions, I'll make further comments, along with presenting the morning line betting odds set by Mike Battaglia.

Fire, Gunfire, & Horses

I was awakened by the beeping of a neighbor's smoke detector at 4:30 this morning; that was followed by the arrival of our local fire truck, with men in fire suits and axes running up and down the hall.  They couldn't tell me where the smoke was coming from - either unit 110, or unit 111 - just down the hall from me.  The alarm woke up Rodney, the man who raises birds next to me, and he called 911.  The fire department was certainly prompt; there were three units here within 5 minutes.  I heard Rodney turn on his exhaust fans and his Hepa filter unit next door, before the fire trucks arrived.  I turned on my two exhaust fans and cracked the rear window.  I heard the windows and patio doors of several neighbors open for fresh air.  Once I heard the men talking in the hall, I poked my head out, and asked where it was.  The fireman I asked said it was one of the two apartments, and that they thought the sprinkler system had put the fire out, as the smoke was subsiding and the smoke alarm had stopped sounding.  I laughed - which got a strange look - and told them that we don't have a sprinkler system or fire extinguishers; all we have are the smoke detectors...  They finally left about 5:30, and it was almost time to get up, so I just stayed up.  I'll need a nap to be sensible for the jury meeting tonight.
  Boulder made the headlines yesterday when one of our deputies shot a man who was holding another man hostage.  The hostage had a gun being held at the back of his head, and the deputy shot and killed the gun-holder at the beginning of the Doudy Draw trail head in Eldorado Springs Canyon. The car the men were sitting in had been reported as car-jacked, and the cell phone of the man being held at gun point was traced there.  I'm glad I didn't have to make that decision.
   The Ocala Breeders Sale, which I used to attend each year, had a record-breaking day yesterday, when a grey filly by Tapit was sold for $1.9 million.  She was a pin-hook; a promising younger horse purchased because the buyer could see potential.  The filly was purchased as a yearling for $335,000.  That meant a profit of over $1.5 million, subtracting the cost of feeding and handling.  Wow.
   The Kentucky Derby will probably be considered a wide-open race for all twenty entries, until someone crosses the finish line ahead of the others on May 2nd.  Besides the American top contenders there is a very interesting colt named Mubtaahij, a son of Dubawi.  The colt himself is Irish-bred, he is owned by an Arab sheikh, he is trained by a South African, and his jockey is from Belgium.  He is a handsome bay colt with three white socks.  He won the last two legs of the United Arab Emirates Triple Crown races in Dubai.  The American colts have never raced a full mile and a quarter; this colt has already won twice at that distance.  As a two-year-old, Mubtaahij defeated horses that were aged two, three and four years - he's already defeated his elders.  But, this is his first time racing in the United States and his regular feed is not approved for use in the US by the Food and Drug Administration.  How will he perform without his normal food and in another country?  Will he prove himself to be a super star?  And, one other thing to consider: Mubtaahij will run without the use of Lasix, which every other entry will be using....   Hmmmmm.  Interesting.  Very interesting.

Gardens and Horse Racing

I'll be watering the garden in a little while - even though we've received some rain, sleet, or snow every day since Thursday.  The sun has been shining each afternoon, along with a nice breeze blowing, and that dries out the raised garden beds.  The peas have emerged and will soon need to be trained to sway slightly over to the support fence.  The carrots, parsnips, strawberries, raspberries, potatoes, celery and herbs are just beginning to break the soil with growth.  The Chinese wisteria had Lynn worried, but I found large numbers of new buds on the branches yesterday afternoon.  I'll try to get some photos taken today...  The birds and squirrels are multiplying like mad in the back yard - especially with all the feeders that Lynn has out.  I'll pick her up this afternoon from DIA, and, hopefully, we won't have another Twilight Zone experience.  I'll get to sleep with my kits tonight.  How grand!
  My kits are out and about, playing in the back yard in the bright sunshine.  And my kidz (local squirrels) are happily munching on pumpkin seeds and walnuts.  I'll be home for a couple of days before I head over to Rosie's for the weekend...  The Grand Jury will meet Thursday night, so I'm hoping I can see the last episode of the Vikings third season late that night, or early Friday.  If not, I'll watch it at Rosie's over the weekend.
  This past weekend, jockey Mike Smith was aboard Shared Belief for the running of the Charles Town Classic in West Virginia.  Shared Belief, along with an English thoroughbred, are rated as the top racing thoroughbreds in the world.  Shared Belief was the betting favorite for the Classic.  But jockey Mike Smith said the horse "didn't feel right" under him, and pulled him up after three-quarters of a mile.  Shared Belief was listed as "did not finish" in the race re-cap.  I want to congratulate Mike Smith; it turns out that Shared Belief had broken his right hip stumbling out of the starting gate.  Had he finished the race, and had the jockey used his whip to urge the horse on, irreparable damage could have been done.  Mike Smith loves to win races.  But Mike Smith cares about his mounts more than he cares about money.  Bless you, again, Mike Smith!
  The starters for the Kentucky Oaks  and for the Kentucky Derby won't be announced until next week.  At the moment, however, it looks as if the Oaks will have eight, or a few more, starters.  They include Birdatthewire, Forever Unbridled, Include Betty, Luminance, Maybellene, Oceanwave, Puca, and Shook Up.  It still looks as though there will be 20 starters, the maximum, for the Kentucky Derby.

Fourteen Days To the Kentucky Derby

First, a small aside about a handsome young colt.  Zenyatta's eldest colt, Cozmic One, made his racing debut at Santa Anita Park on Friday.  As the promising son of Bernardini, and the only once-defeated mare, Zenyatta, expectations were high.  I was just happy to see him appear on the race course, myself.  His first race was a mile in distance, for young horses that hadn't raced before, and with all entries carrying a very low weight.  Coz broke out of the number one starting gate, on the inside, in a field of seven.  He dropped back early, made up a little distance during the stretch, but didn't "fire."  He finished last in the race, and was never a challenger.  Disappointing?  Yes.  But - not all horses bred for racing have that drive, ambition, and fire needed to win races.  According to his trainer, John Shirreffs, and his rider, Victor Espinoza, Coz has the fire within him.  He might still be a little too immature, mentally, to run well.  His mom, Zenyatta, ran her first race as a three-year-old in November; Coz started in April.   Breeding a race horse is risky business.  As the old adage says, you breed the best stallion to the best mare, and hope for  the best.   Hopefully, Cozmic One will become a great race horse.  He might become a great turf racer, or a steeplechaser.  He might never win a race in his entire career, and just be retired to stud with folks wanting to breed into his bloodlines.  He might become a Champion like his mother, and a renowned sire, like Bernardini.  Only time  will tell.

Cozmic One being exercised

  Today I've looked at the pedigrees of the five top-scoring fillies and colts running in the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby.  The fillies will run on Friday, 1 May; they will carry 121 pounds over a dirt track for a distance of one and one-eighth miles (or 9 furlongs).   The top five contenders in the girls' race, by points, are: Condo Commando, I'm a Chatterbox, Stellar Wind, Birdatthewire, and Lovely Maria.  Condo Commando and I'm a Chatterbox are tied in points, with 161 each.  Condo Commando, with five wins in six races, looks great on paper and on the track.  Stellar Wind is a daughter of Curlin; Lovely Maria has raced 7 times and is a Grade I winner.  Birdatthewire has won two races.  Just looking at the photos of the horses, their pedigrees, and their race history - and if everyone gets a clean, unhampered run - I think that Condo Commando will nose out Stellar Wind for the win, and Lovely Maria will run third.   (And that's only looking at the top five point earners.)

  In the Kentucky Derby, on Saturday, 2 May, the boys will travel one and one-quarter miles (or 10 furlongs) on the dirt track, and will carry 126 pounds apiece.  There will probably be a full starting gate - which means twenty rambunctious three-year-olds, all at their tip-top shape.  These are the current point standings for the top five colts:  International Star has 171, Dortmund has 170, Carpe Diem has 164, American Pharaoh has 160, and Frosted has 113.  Mike Battaglia, the Churchill Downs handicapper, is trying to decide who will be the betting favorite, when the the tote opens.  At the moment, he sees Dortmund and American Pharaoh as being equal.  He said the other day that "a dime doesn't separate them."  I think they'll start out as co-favorites on the board.

   International Star is the brilliant son of Fusaichi Pegasus; Dortmund is the son of Big Brown; Carpe Diem is the son of Giant's Causeway; American Pharaoh  is the son of Pioneerof the Nile; and Frosted is the son of Tapit.  Top race horses, top stallions.  I personally prefer, for bloodlines only, Dortmund and Carpe Diem.  I believe that American Pharaoh will be the public's betting choice, based on his romp home in the mud in the Rebel Stakes, as well as his run-away win on a fast track in the Arkansas Derby.    In just looking at the top five runners - I have the feeling that Frosted will win by a head over American Pharaoh, with Dortmund and Carpe Diem fighting it out for third….   

   But these are just my opinions at the moment - without knowing who is starting, what position they draw, and how they look and act on race day, every race is a wide-open door.