Rain For the Oaks and Derby?

For the past few days, the weather forecasts for both the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday have remained the same.  There's a 40% chance of rain Friday afternoon and evening for the Oaks, and a 60% chance of rain for the Derby.
   The early betting favorite for the Kentucky Oaks is Bellafina, a huge daughter of Quality Road, out of the Malibu Moon mare, Akron Moon.  Bellafina has raced 8 times, winning six, and finishing second in her first start.  The only other time was when she "didn't fire" in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Filly race at Churchill Downs, where she finished fourth. And Bellafina has three Grade 1 wins under her belt, too.  She is trained by Simon Callaghan, and will have her regular jockey, Flavian Plat, in the irons for Friday's race.  Since there is a full field, the winner's share of the $1.25 million purse is $705,520 (not the $750,000 I had earlier reported).

Bellafina winning the Santa Anita Oaks

The betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby is Omaha Beach, a dark bay son of War Front, out of the Seeking the Gold mare, Charming. Because of his pedigree, he ran his first three races on turf courses, getting two seconds and a third place.  Richard Mandella, his trainer, noticed the colt seemed to run better on the main dirt track during his morning workouts, and decided to try racing him on the dirt. Omaha Beach finished second in his first dirt race; he won his second race by 9 lengths.  Then he shipped to Arkansas and won his division of the Rebel Stakes, and then won the Arkansas Derby in rain on a sloppy track.  Jockey Mike Smith had to choose between riding Roadster and Omaha Beach in the Kentucky Derby.  Mike chose Omaha Beach - so, even though he's the betting favorite, that's who I'll be betting on....

Omaha Beach winning the Arkansas Derby under Mike Smith

Kentucky Derby Weekend - TV, Post Positions, Odds

NBC is doing blockbuster coverage of the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby this week, with coverage covering 20 races from Thursday, 3 May, through the Derby itself, on 5 May.  On Thursday, 3 May, NBC Sports Network will cover 4 races at Churchill Downs beginning at 4 pm (EDST).  On Friday, 4 May, there will be live coverage of 6 races, including the Grade I Kentucky Oaks,  with NBC Sports Network live from noon until 6 pm (EDST).  Ten races will have coverage on Saturday, 5 May, with live feed on NBC Sports Network from noon until 2:30; then on NBC from 2:30 until 7 pm (all EDST).  The final race covered will be, of course, the Kentucky Derby.
   On Friday, if there are no scratches, 14 fillies will race for the $1 million purse in the Kentucky Oaks.  The race covers one and one-eighth miles on the main dirt track, and all of the 3-year-old girls will carry 121 pounds.  Besides a trophy, and the $600,000 winner's portion, the winning filly will be draped with a blanket of pink lillies...   Originally, the race was run at the distance of 1  1/2 miles; the inaugural winner was Vinaigrette, who won in a time of 2:39.75, in 1875. 
  Eleven of the fillies are Kentucky bred; Wonder Gadot was bred in Ontario, Heavenhasmynikki was bred in Ohio, and Patrona Margarita was bred in Texas.  Ten of the fillies are bay, with three chestnuts and one grey/roan (My Miss Lilly).
  Here is a list of the Oaks entrants by post position, with their morning-line betting odds after their names:
1.     Sassy Sienna       15 to 1 
2.     Coach Rocks       12 to 1
3.     Classy Act           15 to 1
4.     Chocolate Martini     12 to 1
5.     Wonder Gadot      20 to 1
6.     Kelly's Humor     30 to 1
7.     Rayya                   12 to 1
8.     Heavenhasmynikki    50 to 1
9.     Take Charge Paula     15 to 1
10.   Midnight Bisou     5 to 2
11.   My Miss Lilly        10 to 1
12.   Patrona Margarita   30 to 1
13.   Eskimo Kisses        15 to 1
14.   Monomoy Girl         2 to 1

The post position draw for the Kentucky Derby was at 11 this morning.  All but three of the colts were bred in Kentucky; Flameaway was bred in Ontario, Firenze Fire is a Florida-bred, and Audible was bred in New York.
   Here is the post position draw, with morning line odds behind the colt's name.  Number 21 is an alternate entry, who is eligible to run if any of the other entrants scratch.  Should any colt scratch, and 21 run, all of the horses to the outside of the colt who is scratched will move one gate over closer to the rail.
1.     Firenze Fire          50 to 1
2.     Free Drop Billy    30 to 1
3.     Promises Fulfilled     30 to 1
4.     Flameaway           30 to 1
5.     Audible                 8 to 1
6.     Good Magic          12 to 1
7.     Justify                    3 to 1
8.     Lone Sailor            50 to 1
9.     Hofburg                 20 to 1
10.   My Boy Jack         30 to 1
11.   Bolt d'Oro              8 to 1
12.   Enticed                  30 to 1
13.   Bravazo                 50 to 1
14.   Mendelssohn         5 to 1
15.   Instilled Regard     50 to 1
16.   Magnum Moon      6 to 1
17.   Solomini                30 to 1
18.   Vino Rosso             12 to 1
19.   Noble Indy             30 to 1
20.   Combatant              50 to 1
**alternate  21**  Blended Citizen   50 to 1 **

Enjoy watching, and, if you wager, I hope you win!

Abel Tasman Winning the Kentucky Oaks - Photo

Photo by:  Rick Samuels

At one point in time, Abel Tasman, daughter of Quality Road, was last in the field of fourteen on the sloppy track at Churchill Downs.  She came back with a roar, and won

by one and a half lengths....

Kentucky Oaks Today, Derby Tomorrow

It was raining early this morning at Churchill Downs, and the main track surface was given a "sloppy" rating, while the turf track is listed as "good."  The weather forecasters say there will be periods of both rain and sun throughout today.   The Kentucky Oaks, the female version of the Derby, is scheduled to leave the starting gate at 6:12 EST this afternoon.  There is a full field of 15 fillies, who will each carry 121 pounds, over the main track for 1 and 1/8 miles.  The purse for this year's Oaks is $1 million...  I'll be listing post position, filly, morning line betting odds, sire, and coat color. All of the Oaks entries were born in Kentucky.
1     Ever So Clever         20 to 1         Medaglia d'Oro    dark bay
2     Lockdown                20 to 1          First Defence       dark bay
3     Mopotism                 20 to 1         Uncle Mo             bay
4     Paradise Woods         5 to 2          Union Rags          bay
5     Jordan's Henny         30 to 1         Henny Hughes     gray/roan
6     Vexatious                  20 to 1         Giant's Causeway   bay
7     Farrell                        5 to 1          Malibu Moon        bay
8     Sailor's Valentine      30 to 1         Mizzen Mast         gray/roan
9     Wicked Lick             30 to 1         Maclean's Music   chestnut
10   Miss Sky Warrior       9 to 2         First Samurai         dark bay
11   Tequilita                   20 to 1          Union Rags            bay
12   Daddy's Lil Darling   20 to 1        Scat Daddy            dark bay
13   Abel Tasman               5 to 1         Quality Road         bay
14   Salty                            6 to 1          Quality Road        bay
15   Summer Luck            30 to 1         Lookin At Lucky   bay

There have been no scratches in the Kentucky Derby field for tomorrow.  Girvin, who has a quarter crack in one hoof, will be wearing glued-on shoes.  Following are the 20 starters, with their jockeys and trainers listed...
1     Looking at Lee         Corey Lanerie                   Steven Asmussen
2     Thunder Snow          Christophe Soumillon      Saeed bin Suroor  
3     Fast and Accurate    Channing Hill                  Michael Maker 
4     Untrapped                 Ricardo Santana, Jr        Steven Asmussen 
5     Always Dreaming     John Velazquez                Todd Pletcher
6     State of Honor          Jose Lezcano                    Mark Casse
7     Girvin                        Mike Smith                       Joe Sharp
8     Hence                        Florent Geroux                 Steven Asmussen
9     Irap                           Mario Guttierrez               Doug O'Neill
10   Gunnevera                Javier Castellano              Antonio Sano
11   Battle of Midway      Flavio Prat                       Jerry Hollendorfer
12   Sonneteer                  Kent Desormeaux            Keith Desormeaux
13   J Boys Echo              Luis Saez                          Dale Romans
14   Classic Empire         Julien Leparoux              Mark Casse
15   McCraken                Brian J Hernandez, Jr     Ian Wilkes
16   Tapwrit                     Jose Ortiz                          Todd Pletcher
17   Irish War Cry          Rajiv Maragh                    Graham Motion
18   Gormley                    Victor Espinoza                 John Shirreffs
19   Practical Joke          Joel Rosario                       Chad Brown
20   Patch                         Tyler Gaffalione                Todd Pletcher

May all the races be cleanly run (figuratively, since there will be mud everywhere), and may no horses or jockeys have any injuries......

Snow, Betting And Stealing Food

Today is the last day that Loveland Ski Resort is open for skiing...  Looking towards the mountains, I can see that Sugarloaf has no snow, the Indian Peaks are almost completely snow covered, and Mount Audubon still has a total snow covering.  It was in the mid-70s (F) here yesterday, and we had a thunderstorm about 2 in the afternoon - that happened on both Friday and Saturday.  So May is arriving with afternoon and evening thunderstorms, which is fine with me.
  I did not actually bet any monies on the Kentucky Oaks and the Derby this year, and it's a good thing.  My betting choices were awful this year, and since I'm trying to hang onto my dollars for my summer vacation, I'm glad I didn't place any.  Lovely Maria  is a beautifully bred filly, who didn't get the respect she deserved in the Kentucky Oaks.  I did not think that American Pharoah would live up to his racing history and obvious talent at Churchill Downs.  Boy, was I ever wrong.   I can only try to do better for the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, which means I'll have to release my dislike of betting favorites.
   If I'm extremely hungry, I'm lucky to be able to eat three pieces of a large pizza from Pizza Hut.  I ate two pieces yesterday, and closed the remainder (6 big slices) inside the box inside the wall oven in the kitchen.  I left the house for 25 minutes, to walk over to a house and feed and love a cat.  When I got back, Rosie looked guilty about something.  Then I realized the oven door was barely ajar - so I thought Rose had tried to reach, but not actually accessed, the pizza - especially since the box was still closed and the napkin was folded neatly along the front edge.  I was, therefore, very surprised when I opened the box an hour or so later, to have a third slice of pizza.  The box was completely empty.  I can't imagine why, but Rosie was up and down all night long, drinking lots of water, and needing to go outside and relieve herself.  My mistake.  From now on, I'll have to place the box inside the refrigerator, with a big chair propped under the door handle.  Sometimes Rosie is too smart for her own good.

May Day - Kentucky Oaks Day

Today is traditionally May Day which celebrates the arrival of Spring throughout Europe and North America.  In the past, young  people would go out and gather the new flowers, decorating themselves with woven crowns of blossoms; young men would do their best to find a wild rose to present to their sweetheart that still had the morning dew nestling among the petals.  It was a time of celebration of the renewal of nature...
   This year, the United States and the thoroughbred racing world are celebrating May Day with the running of the Kentucky Oaks - a championship grade race for the young three-year-old fillies.  Tomorrow, we'll celebrate with the running of the 141st Kentucky Derby for three-year-old colts.  Unless there is a late scratch, there will be fourteen fillies in the starting gate this afternoon, and the morning-line betting odds have five entries at less than 15 to 1.  Those fillies are Stellar Wind, the betting favorite, followed by Condo Commando and I'm a Chatterbox at four to one, Lovely Maria is listed at five to one, and Birdatthewire is six to one.  The other nine entries are starting at odds of fifteen to one, up to fifty to one.  I still believe, just from paper, that Condo Commando will win by a head or less over Stellar Wind.   - My dream result would be Forever Unbridled as the winner, with Include Betty in second, Puca in third, and either Oceanwave or Shook Up in fourth...

   And, just a reminder - tomorrow, May 2, is the 47th Annual Chincoteague Seafood Festival...  tents are already being set up.  The Festival is scheduled from noon until 4 p.m.

My Kentucky Oaks Predictions

The Kentucky Oaks will be shown live on NBC Sports Network on Friday, 1 May,  at 5:49 (Eastern Daylight Savings Time).  The race's purse is worth $1 million, the distance covered by the three-year-old fillies is one and one-eighth miles, and the girls will each carry 121 pounds.  The winner of the race will take home $600,000.  There are fourteen entries in the race, plus one alternate, in case of a scratch.  All of the fillies were bred in Kentucky, except Stellar Wind, the betting favorite, who was born in Virginia, and the alternate entry, Peace and War, who is a Florida-bred.  If you look at coat colors, Shook Up and Oceanwave are greys (or roans), and there are three chestnuts - Include Betty, I'm a Chatterbox, and Stellar Wind- the rest of the field is bay or dark bay/brown.
   Mike Battaglia set the betting odds as follows:  his favorite is Stellar Wind, who had the most qualifying points, at 7 to 2 odds; he has two fillies at 4 to 1 odds, Condo Commando and I'm a Chatterbox;  Lovely Maria is listed at 5 to 1; and Birdatthewire is at 6 to 1. Mike has two 15 to 1 shots picked, Forever Unbridled, breaking from the inside post, and Puca, who starts on the outside.  The other fillies are listed at odds between 20 and 50 to 1.  I have my own favorite bloodlines that I bet on, and was stymied by the fact that all the entries, except Shook Up, have at least three of my favorite sires in their pedigrees.  Yesterday's last blog listed the post positions, jockeys, and betting odds for this race.
  I still think that Condo Commando will take the race by a nose over Stellar Wind.  Neither of these fillies has raced on the Churchill Downs track, though, and some horses just don't like it.  My dream finish would be Forever Unbridled in first, Oceanwave in second, Include Betty in third, and Puca in fourth.  Horse racing is horse racing - there are so many possibilities that it boggles the mind.  No matter how much you study past races, bloodlines, jockeys and trainers, and the horses themselves, it's always a crap shoot.  Racing luck, weather, how the horse feels, what the atmosphere is like (in both senses), whether the horse "likes" the track and the crowd should always be factored in for any race analysis...  And that's what makes picking a winner on any given day for any particular race such a fantastic feeling.  I don't bet much - but I certainly love to win!

Looking Ahead to Next Weekend

Six days from now, the best three-year-old fillies in the Americas will contest the 141st running of the Kentucky Oaks.  Besides being a celebration of girls in racing, in recent years Oaks day has become a rallying point for the fight against breast cancer; Oaks Day is now Think Pink Day, also.  Hats will be the rage for Friday and Saturday - but my personal concentration is on the horses.  Final nominations have not yet been made, and the Oaks is not known for having a full starting gate, like the Derby.  However, these are the fillies that are the top twenty holding points for inclusion into the Oaks:  (1) Condo Commando, (2) I'm a Chatterbug, (3) Stellar Wind, (4) Birdatthewire, (5) Lovely Maria, (6) Include Betty, (7) Oceanwave, (8) Angela Renee, (9) Sarah Sis, (10) Maybellene, (11) Eskingformoney, (12) Puca, (13) Shook Up, (14) Luminance, (15) Forever Unbridled, (16) Achiever's Legacy, (17) Money'soncharlotte, (18) Danessa Deluxe, (19) Callback, and (20) Wonder Gal.  The Kentucky Oaks will be run on Friday, 1 May, and will be aired live on the NBC Sports Network.  All of the girls will carry 121 pounds in the race that covers one and one-eighth miles.
  Seven days from now, the boys will meet in the Kentucky Derby.  All twenty stalls in the starting gate are expected to be full for the mile and a quarter race.  Each colt will carry 126 pounds.  Other than Mubtaahij, none of the three-year-olds have ever raced this far.  This morning, it was announced that Madefromlucky, who was in 20th place in the points ranking, will not run in the Derby, but will be pointed at the Peter Pan Stakes, instead.  Here is a listing of the top twenty-one colts listed for the Derby, as of this morning.  I list one horse on the bubble, as he has been working for the Derby, and if another horse is scratched, he'll make the cut, and will likely run...  (1) International Star, (2) Dortmund, (3) Carpe Diem, (4) American Pharoah, (5) Frosted, (6) Mubtaahij, (7) Materiality, (8) El Kabeir, (9) Upstart, (10) Far Right, (11) Itsaknockout, (12) Firing Line, (13) Danzig Moon, (14) War Story, (15) Tencendur, (16) Stanford, (17) Mr. Z, (18) Ocho Ocho Ocho, (19) Bolo, (20) Keen Ice, and, on the bubble, (21) Frammento.
  As entries for the races are announced, along with post positions, I'll make further comments, along with presenting the morning line betting odds set by Mike Battaglia.

Gardens and Horse Racing

I'll be watering the garden in a little while - even though we've received some rain, sleet, or snow every day since Thursday.  The sun has been shining each afternoon, along with a nice breeze blowing, and that dries out the raised garden beds.  The peas have emerged and will soon need to be trained to sway slightly over to the support fence.  The carrots, parsnips, strawberries, raspberries, potatoes, celery and herbs are just beginning to break the soil with growth.  The Chinese wisteria had Lynn worried, but I found large numbers of new buds on the branches yesterday afternoon.  I'll try to get some photos taken today...  The birds and squirrels are multiplying like mad in the back yard - especially with all the feeders that Lynn has out.  I'll pick her up this afternoon from DIA, and, hopefully, we won't have another Twilight Zone experience.  I'll get to sleep with my kits tonight.  How grand!
  My kits are out and about, playing in the back yard in the bright sunshine.  And my kidz (local squirrels) are happily munching on pumpkin seeds and walnuts.  I'll be home for a couple of days before I head over to Rosie's for the weekend...  The Grand Jury will meet Thursday night, so I'm hoping I can see the last episode of the Vikings third season late that night, or early Friday.  If not, I'll watch it at Rosie's over the weekend.
  This past weekend, jockey Mike Smith was aboard Shared Belief for the running of the Charles Town Classic in West Virginia.  Shared Belief, along with an English thoroughbred, are rated as the top racing thoroughbreds in the world.  Shared Belief was the betting favorite for the Classic.  But jockey Mike Smith said the horse "didn't feel right" under him, and pulled him up after three-quarters of a mile.  Shared Belief was listed as "did not finish" in the race re-cap.  I want to congratulate Mike Smith; it turns out that Shared Belief had broken his right hip stumbling out of the starting gate.  Had he finished the race, and had the jockey used his whip to urge the horse on, irreparable damage could have been done.  Mike Smith loves to win races.  But Mike Smith cares about his mounts more than he cares about money.  Bless you, again, Mike Smith!
  The starters for the Kentucky Oaks  and for the Kentucky Derby won't be announced until next week.  At the moment, however, it looks as if the Oaks will have eight, or a few more, starters.  They include Birdatthewire, Forever Unbridled, Include Betty, Luminance, Maybellene, Oceanwave, Puca, and Shook Up.  It still looks as though there will be 20 starters, the maximum, for the Kentucky Derby.

Fourteen Days To the Kentucky Derby

First, a small aside about a handsome young colt.  Zenyatta's eldest colt, Cozmic One, made his racing debut at Santa Anita Park on Friday.  As the promising son of Bernardini, and the only once-defeated mare, Zenyatta, expectations were high.  I was just happy to see him appear on the race course, myself.  His first race was a mile in distance, for young horses that hadn't raced before, and with all entries carrying a very low weight.  Coz broke out of the number one starting gate, on the inside, in a field of seven.  He dropped back early, made up a little distance during the stretch, but didn't "fire."  He finished last in the race, and was never a challenger.  Disappointing?  Yes.  But - not all horses bred for racing have that drive, ambition, and fire needed to win races.  According to his trainer, John Shirreffs, and his rider, Victor Espinoza, Coz has the fire within him.  He might still be a little too immature, mentally, to run well.  His mom, Zenyatta, ran her first race as a three-year-old in November; Coz started in April.   Breeding a race horse is risky business.  As the old adage says, you breed the best stallion to the best mare, and hope for  the best.   Hopefully, Cozmic One will become a great race horse.  He might become a great turf racer, or a steeplechaser.  He might never win a race in his entire career, and just be retired to stud with folks wanting to breed into his bloodlines.  He might become a Champion like his mother, and a renowned sire, like Bernardini.  Only time  will tell.

Cozmic One being exercised

  Today I've looked at the pedigrees of the five top-scoring fillies and colts running in the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby.  The fillies will run on Friday, 1 May; they will carry 121 pounds over a dirt track for a distance of one and one-eighth miles (or 9 furlongs).   The top five contenders in the girls' race, by points, are: Condo Commando, I'm a Chatterbox, Stellar Wind, Birdatthewire, and Lovely Maria.  Condo Commando and I'm a Chatterbox are tied in points, with 161 each.  Condo Commando, with five wins in six races, looks great on paper and on the track.  Stellar Wind is a daughter of Curlin; Lovely Maria has raced 7 times and is a Grade I winner.  Birdatthewire has won two races.  Just looking at the photos of the horses, their pedigrees, and their race history - and if everyone gets a clean, unhampered run - I think that Condo Commando will nose out Stellar Wind for the win, and Lovely Maria will run third.   (And that's only looking at the top five point earners.)

  In the Kentucky Derby, on Saturday, 2 May, the boys will travel one and one-quarter miles (or 10 furlongs) on the dirt track, and will carry 126 pounds apiece.  There will probably be a full starting gate - which means twenty rambunctious three-year-olds, all at their tip-top shape.  These are the current point standings for the top five colts:  International Star has 171, Dortmund has 170, Carpe Diem has 164, American Pharaoh has 160, and Frosted has 113.  Mike Battaglia, the Churchill Downs handicapper, is trying to decide who will be the betting favorite, when the the tote opens.  At the moment, he sees Dortmund and American Pharaoh as being equal.  He said the other day that "a dime doesn't separate them."  I think they'll start out as co-favorites on the board.

   International Star is the brilliant son of Fusaichi Pegasus; Dortmund is the son of Big Brown; Carpe Diem is the son of Giant's Causeway; American Pharaoh  is the son of Pioneerof the Nile; and Frosted is the son of Tapit.  Top race horses, top stallions.  I personally prefer, for bloodlines only, Dortmund and Carpe Diem.  I believe that American Pharaoh will be the public's betting choice, based on his romp home in the mud in the Rebel Stakes, as well as his run-away win on a fast track in the Arkansas Derby.    In just looking at the top five runners - I have the feeling that Frosted will win by a head over American Pharaoh, with Dortmund and Carpe Diem fighting it out for third….   

   But these are just my opinions at the moment - without knowing who is starting, what position they draw, and how they look and act on race day, every race is a wide-open door.

Kentucky Oaks, Kentucky Derby, Ducklings (& Vikings)

NBC Sports Network will broadcast, live, the running of the Kentucky Oaks  this afternoon.  There are still thirteen fillies entered, and it looks like a very athletic and competitive race.  I'm looking forward to it, and (of course) I hope that one of my choices wins the race.
  With Hoppertunity scratched from tomorrow's Derby, the horses in Post Positions 12 through 20, will all shift over one slot.  If Pablo Del Monte runs tomorrow, he will race from the 20th post gate.  I'll post my thought and choices on the Derby colts later this afternoon, after I post the results of the Oaks.
  The season finale of Vikings last night proved that Floki is a trickster, like Loki.  Helga, his wife, was appalled that Floki named their daughter Angrbroda , the giantess who was Loki's wife.  I wonder how she will figure in later episodes.  Seeing the twists and threads of the story now, I can see how everything came to pass.  Writer Michael Hirst has a very intriguing mind - and, it was very strange that Ragnar's only words in last night's episode were the request to learn a Christian prayer, and his, almost, word for word repetition of Athelstan's lead.  Ragnar appears throughout the episode, but he only speaks the Lord's Prayer...  And I was very happy to see Rollo get to his feet and use his axe again.  One heck of a way to end the season!
  Other than that, I am appalled by the callousness of two boys here in Boulder.  While walking down a path near a stream, a man saw two boys (he thinks they were about 12 or 13 years old), throwing rocks at baby ducklings.  He yelled and ran toward the boys, who ran away.  The man saw a mother mallard duck with nine ducklings launch into the water, and he felt all was well. Then he realized there were two ducklings still on the bank.  He scooped them up into a shoe box and took them to our local wildlife rehabilitation center.  One duckling has a nasty head injury, and is not expected to live.  The second duckling has a wing injury.  Both ducklings still have a prominent egg tooth, meaning they hatched only one or two days ago.  If the first duckling dies, the second one probably will die as well, as they are very hard to raise as singletons.  How can anyone consider harming a cute baby duckling?  They're all fuzzy feathers, big bills, and wobbly orange feet.  I hope that Greenbriar Wildlife Rehabilitation Center can perform miracles and return both of the baby ducks to the wild.  (And, may I have permission to throw 75 pound rocks at those two boys?)
 

The Tennessee Bird Walk & The Kentucky Oaks Draw

I woke up this morning with a song stuck in my head - I believe that it's called an "ear-wig" these days.  The song was released in 1970, and was sung by a husband and wife duet, Jack Blanchard and Misty Morgan.  It was a novelty - or party - song.  It reached #23 in the Top 100 Hits List, and was #1 on the Country charts for a week or two.  These are the lines that are stuck in my head:
"So, remember me, my darling, when Spring is in the air,
And those bald-headed birds are whispering everywhere,
When you see them walking southward in their dirty underwear,
That's the Tennessee Bird Walk....    (Chirp, chirp)"
I hadn't thought of that song in years, and I have no idea why it is running around inside my brain today. Spring is in the air, but I have seen no bald-headed birds, I haven't seen them whispering, and I haven't observed any birds wearing dirty underwear walking to the south....  So why is it stuck in my brain?
   Thirteen fillies are entered in Friday's running of the $1 million Kentucky Oaks.  Following is their Post Position, followed by the ladies' names, the names of their jockeys, and  the morning betting odds:
1.   Please Explain,  Jose Lezcano    50 to 1
2.   Ria Antonia,  Mike E Smith       10 to 1
3.   Sugar Shock,  Calvin Borel        12 to 1
4.   Rosalind,   Joel Rosario          8 to 1
5.   Thank You Marylou,   Julian Leparoux    30 to 1
6.   Kiss Moon,  Victor Espinoza    30 to 1
7.   Fashion Plate,  Gary Stevens    6 to 1
8.   Aurelia's Belle,  Channing Hill    50 to 1
9.   Unbridled Forever,  Robby Albarado    12 to 1
10.  Empress of Midway,  Corey Nakatani     50 to 1
11.  My Miss Sophia,  Javier Castellano    8 to 1
12.  Got Lucky,   John Velasquez    20 to 1
13.  Untapable,   Rosie Napravnik     4 to 5
I'll write about the fillies tomorrow, and Thursday I'll write about the 20 colts in the Derby.

Flashy Gray Scratched From Oaks

Flashy Gray, the daughter of Flashy Bull and grand daughter of Holy Bull, has been scratched from running in Friday's Kentucky Oaks.  She suffered a bruised right heel during a work out yesterday, and trainer Bill Mott doesn't want to race her when she is at less than 100 %.  This leaves a field of 10 fillies in the Oaks.
  Will the snow storms of Colorado and the mid-west cause rain at Churchill Downs?  There is a twenty % chance of rain forecast for Friday, but on Saturday, the rain chance will be between 40 and 60%.  The last Derby run on a sloppy track was in 2010.
  For the Derby, there will be a full gate of 20 horses, unless two entrants scratch; as one alternate entry, Fear the Kitten, is at Churchill Downs and is working as if he will run (in case some one does scratch).  Most of this years entries were foaled in Kentucky, including Aidan O'Brien trained Lines of Battle, who flew in from Ireland yesterday. Giant Finish was bred in New York, Falling Sky is from Pennsylvania, and Fear the Kitten, the alternate, is from Illinois.  All of the entrants are colts, except Vyjack, a gelding.  There are three chestnuts, two grey or roans, and the rest are bays or browns (although Black Onyx is dark enough to be considered black).  I haven't really kept up with Derby prep races, so I really don't know any of the contestants.  I'll decide by Saturday morning where I want to place my bets.
  After receiving 12 inches of snow yesterday, we have a bright blue sky outside, even though it's only 21 degrees outside.  I'll be heading off to walk Rosie soon, as Remy has an acupuncture appointment today. My kits ran in and out several times yesterday, and both are out on the concrete patio in the sun this morning. Our local PBS station showed an episode of Nature last night that was centered on the Lippizan horses of the Spanish Riding School in Vienna.  The horses are a declared treasure of Austria, and, watching them train and perform, it is obvious as to why.  They are gorgeous.

Believe You Can Wins KY Oaks

Thursday evening, I wrote that I liked the pedigrees of 3 fillies in today's Kentucky Oaks.  Believe You Can, a daughter of Proud Citizen, out of El Fasto, was one of them.  She won the Oaks' Lilies, beating Broadway's Alibi by 3/4 length, with favorite Grace Hall in third.  The other two pedigrees I liked belonged to Summer Applause and On Fire Baby, who finished fourth and fifth.  I liked the looks of Jemima's Pearl - she finished tenth out of 14, as Oaks Lily was scratched. The filly (Believe You Can) is owned by previous Kentucky Governor Brereton Jones, and was ridden by Rosie Napravnik.  Rosie became the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Oaks - which seems fitting, since today was the Susan G. Komen's Race Against Breast Cancer Day at Churchill Downs.
   El Fasto is a the daughter of El Prado - and if you trace his pedigree back, you find *Forli - so Believe You Can is a cousin of the younger horses I worked with at Sleepy Hollow Horse Farm.

Friday's Kentucky Oaks

I've been running around so much that I haven't yet eaten my supper - but I did make the time to look at the field of 15 fillies entered in tomorrow's Kentucky Oaks - the girls equivalent to the Kentucky Derby.  There are four fillies that I like - three on pedigree and one just on her looks.  The first girl I like breaks from post 1 (on the rail, which might make her winning more difficult), her name is On Fire Baby; and she's a grey or roan daughter of Smoke Glacken, out of Ornate.  The second filly is Summer Applause, a bay, who breaks from post 3; her sire is Harlan's Holiday, and her dam is loaded with Man o' War blood: Summer Exhibition.  The third pedigree I like belongs to Believe You Can, a dark bay or brown filly; by Proud Citizen, and out of El Fasto, breaking from post 9.  I simply like the looks of Jemima's Pearl, a bay filly, breaking from the 8 position; she is by Distorted Humor, and is out of  Jemima (GB).
   My favorite mare currently racing in the US will be running in the Distaff Turf Mile in race 8 (before the Derby) on Saturday - her name, is, of course, Daisy Devine.
   I enjoyed my time with Peach today - I visited her three times this morning, and will continue to do so through Sunday.  She is a very sweet 14-year-old yellow Lab.  ...  My kits were excited when I finally got home this afternoon; they were happy to go out and play in the yard, having been cooped up all morning and half of the afternoon.  Besides caring for Peach, I walked the red kids, and then walked Boo and Kathy, and then we figured out a way for Kathy to wash her hair at home, with minimal help.  Then I braided her clean mane back up, and came home, arriving at 3.
   After I eat my supper and drop off my rent check, I'll look at the 21 colts running in the Derby.  I'll blog about it tomorrow....

Kentucky Oaks Post Positions

The field for the $1 million, 1 1/8 mile race, in post-position order, with jockeys, and Friday's morning-line odds:
1—Joyful Victory, Mike Smith, 5-2
2—Lilacs and Lace, Javier Castellano, 12-1
3—Summer Soiree, Gabriel Saez, 5-1
4—Kathmanblu, Julien Leparoux, 4-1
5—Suave Voir Faire, Miguel Mena, 50-1
6—Zazu, Joel Rosario, 4-1
7—Her Smile, Garrett Gomez, 20-1
8—Bouquet Booth, Robby Albarado, 20-1
9—Daisy Devine, James Graham, 20-1
10—Street Storm, Shaun Bridgmohan, 50-1
11—Holy Heavens, Kent Desormeaux, 50-1
12—Plum Pretty, Martin Garcia, 5-1
13—St. John's River, Rosie Napravnik, 30-1

My picks run from the 6, 9, and 13 gates; St. John's River will have Rosie Napravnik in the irons. Napravnik is the only female jockey riding in this year's Derby (on Pants on Fire). ** The Kentucky Oaks will be broadcast live on the Versus network on cable and satellite TV on Friday, from 5:00 EDT until 6:00 EDT.**

The Fillies

OK. Osama bin Laden is dead. Let's get on with our lives and look forward, not back.
Friday Churchill Downs will host the 137th running of the Kentucky Oaks, worth $1 million, and run on the main dirt track at the distance of one and one-eighth miles. Final entries are not yet in, nor have post positions been drawn. But the pre-race betting favorite R Heat Lightning has been scratched from the race due to heat in her right knee. From a field that would have been seven (reduced to six), with R Heat Lightning's withdrawal, several more fillies are being considered possible entries. In alphabetical order, there are now 11 possible runners: Arienza, Daisy Devine, Her Smile, Island School, Joyful Victory, Kathmanblu, Lilacs and Lace, Plum Pretty, St. John's River, Summer Soiree, and Zuzu. Two of the fillies are grey, or roan: Zazu and Joyful Victory (my husband always bet on the grey horses).
As I have stated before, my favorite is Daisy Devine (since I'm Betty Devine, it just seems to make sense...). I also like Zazu, the grey, and St. John's River, a bay. Don't let St. John's River's name fool you - she is a Kentucky bred, as are all three of my picks. Daisy Devine's great-grandsires are: Runaway Groom, Moment of Hope, Halo, and Briartic. St. John's River's great- grandsires are Ack Ack, Stop the Music, Damascus, and Seattle Slew. Zazu's great-grandsires are A.P. Indy, Unbridled, Gone West, and Pleasant Colony. For the moment, these are my favorites.
**NEWS** Toby's Corner, my Florida-bred pick for the Kentucky Derby, has been scratched from the race. He was due to be shipped from Maryland to Louisville today, but it was discovered that he has heat in his left hock. He won't make it to Churchill Downs for the Run for the Roses.