Kentucky Derby Entries' Bloodlines

Please see yesterday's blog for the morning-line betting odds for the entries.  Following will be the colts in their post positions, with their sires listed, followed by the maternal sires.  
   But, first - Again, the race is on the main dirt track at Churchill Downs, and covers the distance of 10 furlongs, or 1 and 1/4 miles.  Only colts are entered this year, so each entry will carry 126 pounds.    Of the 20 regular entries (plus the two alternates, in case of a scratch), all were born in Kentucky, except for # 2 Thunder Snow, born in Ireland; # 3 Fast and Accurate, born in Pennsylvania; # 6 State of Honor, born in Ontario, Canada; and # 17 Irish War Cry, born in New Jersey.  If you bet by coat colors, all of the colts are bay, brown, or dark bay, except for two gray/roans (# 3 Fast and Accurate, and # 16 Tapwrit) and three chestnuts (# 8 Hence, # 10 Gunnevera, and # 17 Irish War Cry).
  Here's the field, with sires and broodmare sires:
1     Lookin At Lee          Lookin At Lucky          Langfuhr
2     Thunder Snow          Helmet                           Dubai Destination
3     Fast and Accurate     Hansen                          Green Dancer
4     Untrapped                 Trappe Shot                  Giant's Causeway
5     Always Dreaming    Bodemeister                  In Excess
6     State of Honor          To Honor and Serve     Elusive Quality
7     Girvin                       Tale of Ekati                 Malibu Moon
8     Hence                        Street Boss                   A. P. Indy
9     Irap                            Tiznow                         Storm Cat
10   Gunnevera                 Dialed In                     Unbridled
11   Battle of Midway       Smart Strike               Concerto
12   Sonneteer                   Midnight Lute             Half Ours
13   J Boys Echo              Mineshaft                     Menifee
14   Classic Empire          Pioneer of the Nile      Cat Thief
15   McCraken                 Ghostzapper                 Seeking the Gold
16   Tapwrit                      Tapit                             Successful Appeal
17   Irish War Cry             Curlin                          Polish Numbers
18   Gormley                    Malibu Moon               Bernstein
19   Practical Joke            Into Mischief                Distorted Humor
20   Patch                         Union Rags                   A. P. Indy
AE1  Royal Mo                Uncle Mo                      Saint Ballado
AE2  Master Plan             Twirling Candy           Henny Hughes

Tomorrow - Jockeys and trainers...

My Kentucky Derby Picks

After yesterday afternoon's draw, I blogged the post positions, names of horses, names of jockeys, and the morning line betting odds for the Kentucky Derby.  Besides the top twenty colts in the starting gate, there are two others prepared to step into the gate in case of other entrants having to scratch out of the race.  The race is one and one-quarter miles, and all colts will carry 126 pounds.  As usual, I'll give the odd-ball views of the race, and then pedigrees and my choices...
  Of the twenty colts starting, one is a gelding (War Story); two are ridglings, meaning only one testicle has descended - Upstart and Far Right; and the rest are whole males.  Of the twenty colts, two are greys or roans - El Kabeir and Frosted; six are chestnuts - Carpe Diem, Dortmund, International Star, War Story, Mr. Z, and Far Right; the other colts are bays and dark browns.  Three of the runners are sons of past Kentucky Derby winners: Ocho Ocho Ocho is the son of Street Sense; Dortmund is the son of Big Brown; and International Star is the son of Fusaichi Pegasus.  Spendthrift Farm sires comprise seven entries: Notional is the sire of Far Right; Malibu Moon has three sons entered - Mr. Z, Stanford, and Danzig Moon; Line of David is the sire of Firing Line; Temple City fathered Bolo; and Warrior's Reward is the sire of Tencendur.  All of the colts are related to my favorite three sires.  The colts were all bred in Kentucky, with a few exceptions: Tencendur, Upstart, and International Star were New York bred; El Kabeir was bred in Florida; Danzig Moon is a registered Ontario, Canada bred; and Mubtaahij is the Irish-bred colt with the Arab owner with the South African trainer and with the jockey from Belgium.  If I were going on good looks alone, I'd pick American Pharoah, Itsaknockout, Frosted, Stanford, Firing Line and Danzig Moon.  Trainer D Wayne Lukas says that Mr. Z has a natural affinity with the Churchill Downs track.
  Mubtaahij is the only horse in the field that has raced one and a quarter miles before, and he won his races.  He has also defeated older horses.  But he's now racing in a different country, and without his usual feed (which isn't approved in the United States), on a different track.  Will he be able to continue his winning ways?  American Pharoah hasn't raced at CD before, but he has won, convincingly, on both a muddy and a fast track.  The morning odds have only three colts listed at less than 12 to 1 odds:  American Pharoah, Dortmund, and Carpe Diem.
  As I stated yesterday, there are a multitude of items to consider in handicapping and betting on a race - the horses past race history, the pedigree of the horse, the jockey, the post position, riding and racing strategy, the "feel" of the course to the horse, how the horse itself feels, how the horse reacts to the crowd and the hoopla surrounding a Triple Crown race, etc., etc, etc....      If I were just choosing my bets based on pedigree, my first pick would be Mubtaahij, followed by Ocho Ocho Ocho, Dortmund, International Star, Frosted and Itsaknockout.  Without seeing the colts before the race, just based on my research (and my own feelings) I think that Firing Line will give Gary Stevens a winning ride.  I believe that Dortmund, American Pharoah, and Carpe Diem will be burnt out with an eighth of a mile left.  I think Frosted will be in second place, with El Kabeir and Keen Ice battling for third.   -   Of course, my picks might change after seeing the colts on race day.
   Television coverage:  NBC Sports Network will televise 3 hours of racing on Friday, 1 May, including the Kentucky Oaks from 3 o'clock to 6 o'clock (EDT).
   Derby Day coverage, on May 2, will begin at 12 noon (EDT) on the NBC Sports Network and run until 4 o'clock (EDT), at which time coverage will switch to local NBC channels from 4 until 7 (EDT), with a wrap-up of events on NBC Sports Network from 7 through 7:30 (EDT).
**** Here's hoping for injury free races on both days!  And good luck, if you are betting! ****
 

Fourteen Days To the Kentucky Derby

First, a small aside about a handsome young colt.  Zenyatta's eldest colt, Cozmic One, made his racing debut at Santa Anita Park on Friday.  As the promising son of Bernardini, and the only once-defeated mare, Zenyatta, expectations were high.  I was just happy to see him appear on the race course, myself.  His first race was a mile in distance, for young horses that hadn't raced before, and with all entries carrying a very low weight.  Coz broke out of the number one starting gate, on the inside, in a field of seven.  He dropped back early, made up a little distance during the stretch, but didn't "fire."  He finished last in the race, and was never a challenger.  Disappointing?  Yes.  But - not all horses bred for racing have that drive, ambition, and fire needed to win races.  According to his trainer, John Shirreffs, and his rider, Victor Espinoza, Coz has the fire within him.  He might still be a little too immature, mentally, to run well.  His mom, Zenyatta, ran her first race as a three-year-old in November; Coz started in April.   Breeding a race horse is risky business.  As the old adage says, you breed the best stallion to the best mare, and hope for  the best.   Hopefully, Cozmic One will become a great race horse.  He might become a great turf racer, or a steeplechaser.  He might never win a race in his entire career, and just be retired to stud with folks wanting to breed into his bloodlines.  He might become a Champion like his mother, and a renowned sire, like Bernardini.  Only time  will tell.

Cozmic One being exercised

  Today I've looked at the pedigrees of the five top-scoring fillies and colts running in the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby.  The fillies will run on Friday, 1 May; they will carry 121 pounds over a dirt track for a distance of one and one-eighth miles (or 9 furlongs).   The top five contenders in the girls' race, by points, are: Condo Commando, I'm a Chatterbox, Stellar Wind, Birdatthewire, and Lovely Maria.  Condo Commando and I'm a Chatterbox are tied in points, with 161 each.  Condo Commando, with five wins in six races, looks great on paper and on the track.  Stellar Wind is a daughter of Curlin; Lovely Maria has raced 7 times and is a Grade I winner.  Birdatthewire has won two races.  Just looking at the photos of the horses, their pedigrees, and their race history - and if everyone gets a clean, unhampered run - I think that Condo Commando will nose out Stellar Wind for the win, and Lovely Maria will run third.   (And that's only looking at the top five point earners.)

  In the Kentucky Derby, on Saturday, 2 May, the boys will travel one and one-quarter miles (or 10 furlongs) on the dirt track, and will carry 126 pounds apiece.  There will probably be a full starting gate - which means twenty rambunctious three-year-olds, all at their tip-top shape.  These are the current point standings for the top five colts:  International Star has 171, Dortmund has 170, Carpe Diem has 164, American Pharaoh has 160, and Frosted has 113.  Mike Battaglia, the Churchill Downs handicapper, is trying to decide who will be the betting favorite, when the the tote opens.  At the moment, he sees Dortmund and American Pharaoh as being equal.  He said the other day that "a dime doesn't separate them."  I think they'll start out as co-favorites on the board.

   International Star is the brilliant son of Fusaichi Pegasus; Dortmund is the son of Big Brown; Carpe Diem is the son of Giant's Causeway; American Pharaoh  is the son of Pioneerof the Nile; and Frosted is the son of Tapit.  Top race horses, top stallions.  I personally prefer, for bloodlines only, Dortmund and Carpe Diem.  I believe that American Pharaoh will be the public's betting choice, based on his romp home in the mud in the Rebel Stakes, as well as his run-away win on a fast track in the Arkansas Derby.    In just looking at the top five runners - I have the feeling that Frosted will win by a head over American Pharaoh, with Dortmund and Carpe Diem fighting it out for third….   

   But these are just my opinions at the moment - without knowing who is starting, what position they draw, and how they look and act on race day, every race is a wide-open door.