Fourteen Days To the Kentucky Derby

First, a small aside about a handsome young colt.  Zenyatta's eldest colt, Cozmic One, made his racing debut at Santa Anita Park on Friday.  As the promising son of Bernardini, and the only once-defeated mare, Zenyatta, expectations were high.  I was just happy to see him appear on the race course, myself.  His first race was a mile in distance, for young horses that hadn't raced before, and with all entries carrying a very low weight.  Coz broke out of the number one starting gate, on the inside, in a field of seven.  He dropped back early, made up a little distance during the stretch, but didn't "fire."  He finished last in the race, and was never a challenger.  Disappointing?  Yes.  But - not all horses bred for racing have that drive, ambition, and fire needed to win races.  According to his trainer, John Shirreffs, and his rider, Victor Espinoza, Coz has the fire within him.  He might still be a little too immature, mentally, to run well.  His mom, Zenyatta, ran her first race as a three-year-old in November; Coz started in April.   Breeding a race horse is risky business.  As the old adage says, you breed the best stallion to the best mare, and hope for  the best.   Hopefully, Cozmic One will become a great race horse.  He might become a great turf racer, or a steeplechaser.  He might never win a race in his entire career, and just be retired to stud with folks wanting to breed into his bloodlines.  He might become a Champion like his mother, and a renowned sire, like Bernardini.  Only time  will tell.

Cozmic One being exercised

  Today I've looked at the pedigrees of the five top-scoring fillies and colts running in the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby.  The fillies will run on Friday, 1 May; they will carry 121 pounds over a dirt track for a distance of one and one-eighth miles (or 9 furlongs).   The top five contenders in the girls' race, by points, are: Condo Commando, I'm a Chatterbox, Stellar Wind, Birdatthewire, and Lovely Maria.  Condo Commando and I'm a Chatterbox are tied in points, with 161 each.  Condo Commando, with five wins in six races, looks great on paper and on the track.  Stellar Wind is a daughter of Curlin; Lovely Maria has raced 7 times and is a Grade I winner.  Birdatthewire has won two races.  Just looking at the photos of the horses, their pedigrees, and their race history - and if everyone gets a clean, unhampered run - I think that Condo Commando will nose out Stellar Wind for the win, and Lovely Maria will run third.   (And that's only looking at the top five point earners.)

  In the Kentucky Derby, on Saturday, 2 May, the boys will travel one and one-quarter miles (or 10 furlongs) on the dirt track, and will carry 126 pounds apiece.  There will probably be a full starting gate - which means twenty rambunctious three-year-olds, all at their tip-top shape.  These are the current point standings for the top five colts:  International Star has 171, Dortmund has 170, Carpe Diem has 164, American Pharaoh has 160, and Frosted has 113.  Mike Battaglia, the Churchill Downs handicapper, is trying to decide who will be the betting favorite, when the the tote opens.  At the moment, he sees Dortmund and American Pharaoh as being equal.  He said the other day that "a dime doesn't separate them."  I think they'll start out as co-favorites on the board.

   International Star is the brilliant son of Fusaichi Pegasus; Dortmund is the son of Big Brown; Carpe Diem is the son of Giant's Causeway; American Pharaoh  is the son of Pioneerof the Nile; and Frosted is the son of Tapit.  Top race horses, top stallions.  I personally prefer, for bloodlines only, Dortmund and Carpe Diem.  I believe that American Pharaoh will be the public's betting choice, based on his romp home in the mud in the Rebel Stakes, as well as his run-away win on a fast track in the Arkansas Derby.    In just looking at the top five runners - I have the feeling that Frosted will win by a head over American Pharaoh, with Dortmund and Carpe Diem fighting it out for third….   

   But these are just my opinions at the moment - without knowing who is starting, what position they draw, and how they look and act on race day, every race is a wide-open door.